French voters head into the most important presidential election in decades in a bad mood. They think their country is on the wrong track, they distrust European Union institutions and they suffer from an economy in malaise, as they like to put it.
Will that translate into votes for populist candidate Marine Le Pen of the National Front? Yves Bardon, a researcher at Ipsos France, isn’t so sure. He calls it the “French paradox:” People are skeptical about their country’s future, but optimistic about their personal situation and their families.
These charts explain that paradox.
Since the recession that began in 2009, France has more than recovered its lost output. It’s made more progress than Italy and Spain—but less than Germany and the U.K.
GDP
111.2 U.K.
108.5 Germany
105.3 France
99.6 Spain
94.6 Italy
2009
2013
2017
GDP
111.2 U.K.
108.5 Germany
105.3 France
99.6 Spain
94.6 Italy
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Unemployment is way too high too, especially for youth. But some other European countries are worse.
Unemployment
42.9
40.1
Youth
26.2%
18.4
12.0
Average
9.6%
France
Spain
Italy
Unemployment
42.9
40.1
Youth
26.2%
18.4
Average
9.6%
12.0
6.5
3.9
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
France leads in one area: Its people bear the highest tax burden in Europe—even higher than the Swedes and the Danes.
Tax Burden
France 47.9%
Italy 43.5
Germany 40.0
Spain 34.6
2006
2009
2012
2015
Tax Burden
47.9%
France
Italy
43.5
Germany
40.0
Spain
34.6
2006
2009
2012
2015
Some of these unpleasant facts turn up in French people’s views of the future. They are more pessimistic than any other Europeans about whether their country is on the right track.
Views on the Future
32
Right track
22
12%
68
78
88%
Wrong track
France
Sweden
Germany
Views on the Future
37
32
Right track
22
22
18
12%
63
68
78
78
82
88%
Wrong track
France
Italy
Sweden
U.K.
Spain
Germany
And they have a lower opinion of the EU’s leadership than the British—who just voted to leave the bloc.
Views on EU Leadership
Distrust in the
European Commission
65%
60
France
U.K.
Views on EU Leadership
Distrust in the
European Commission
65%
60
55
45
Germany
France
U.K.
Sweden
But there’s where it starts to get complicated: The French by and large don’t hate the EU, or want to leave it. Only 22 percent favor that option.
Views on the EU
Leave the EU
22%
Stay in the
EU, reduce
its powers
33%
6%
Leave
things as
they are
25%
Increase the
EU’s power
Views on the EU
45
Leave the EU
25
22%
16
Stay in the
EU, reduce
its powers
23
23
32
33%
9
12
6%
Leave
things as
they are
10
7
18
25%
39
Increase the
EU’s power
France
Germany
Sweden
U.K.
And while Le Pen’s National Front has used language fueling suspicion about France’s Muslim population, the nation as a whole views Muslims less negatively than many of its neighbors.
Views on Muslims
69
Unfavorable
views
35
29%
France
Sweden
Italy
Views on Muslims
69
50
Unfavorable
views
35
29
29%
28
U.K.
France
Germany
Sweden
Spain
Italy
Its population is also supported by one of the most generous social security systems in the world, with 31 percent of gross domestic product spent on public medical care, unemployment insurance and other benefits.
As Ipsos’s Bardon says, the French are content with their own personal situation, even more so than many of their also-cheerful European neighbors.
Views on Personal Situation
Happy
81%
76
75
19%
24
25
Unhappy
France
U.K.
Germany
Views on Personal Situation
Happy
88
81%
76
75
73
12
19%
24
25
27
Unhappy
Sweden
France
U.K.
Germany
Italy
It’s quite a laundry list for the five candidates vying for France’s presidency: Boost the economy, create jobs, make the EU work better, cut taxes and retain social benefits. Good luck.