The Great Brexit Banker Exodus That Wasn’t

As the time nears for Britain’s departure from the European Union, the world’s biggest banks are moving far fewer employees abroad than first planned at least for now.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is likely to relocate about 400 people outside of Britain, just 10 percent of an initial estimate of up to 4,000. Deutsche Bank AG will similarly now move a few hundred bankers to Frankfurt and other cities after Brexit, not the 4,000 it first thought. Morgan Stanley will send some 280 bankers to Paris and Frankfurt, while Bank of America Corp. will move 400 people to the continent, the vast majority of them to the French capital.

The current estimates are for the number of employees the banks need to staff their new EU bases on day one of Brexit. In the months and years following, the number may well return to the earlier forecasts, depending on the trade deal the U.K. ultimately agrees on with the EU.

London could ultimately lose 10,000 banking jobs and 20,000 roles in financial services as clients move 1.8 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) of assets out of the U.K. on Brexit, according to think-tank Bruegel. The implications for the U.K. are substantial–finance and related professional services bring in some 190 billion pounds ($245 billion) a year, representing 12 percent of the British economy.

We’re tracking jobs that the banks say they plan to move, with updates to follow.