The Future

According to Elon Musk

What’s late? What’s ahead of schedule? Tracking Musk’s goals for Tesla, SpaceX, and everything else he dreams up.


By Tom Randall

Updated Aug 07, 2017

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02/13/2057
Other | Full Transition to Electric Vehicles
07/15/2037
Tesla | No More Steering Wheels
02/13/2037
Other | 12% to 15% of Human Workforce Unemployed by Automation
05/25/2032
SpaceX | Humans Depart for Mars
12/31/2027
SpaceX | Crewed Launch of the Mars Ship (ITS)
07/15/2027
Tesla | Half of U.S. Vehicles Will Be Electric
07/15/2027
Tesla | All U.S. Cars Will Be Autonomous
04/20/2027
Neuralink | Brain Interfaces for Healthy People
02/13/2027
Other | Almost all new cars fully autonomous
02/11/2025
Tesla | Tesla Valued at $700 Billion
01/31/2024
SpaceX | Space Internet—Mesh Network Complete
12/31/2022
SpaceX | Interplanetary Transport System's Maiden Voyage
06/06/2022
Tesla | Electric Planes Become Compelling
04/20/2021
Neuralink | First Improvements to the Human Brain
12/31/2020
Tesla | 500,000 Cars a Year
12/31/2020
Tesla | Gigafactory Reaches Full Production
12/31/2020
Tesla | Model S Gets 1,200 km (746 miles) Under Ideal Conditions
12/31/2020
Tesla | 1 Million Cars a Year
10/10/2020
Tesla | Autonomous Cars Are Capable of Letting Drivers Sleep
12/31/2019
Tesla | Model Y Launch
12/31/2019
Tesla | Solar Gigafactory Reaches Full Production
06/06/2019
Tesla | Tesla Semi Scale Production
04/13/2019
Tesla | Pickup Truck Unveiling
03/24/2019
Tesla | Next Gen Roadster Launch
01/31/2019
SpaceX | Space Internet—Launch Campaign Starts
12/31/2018
SpaceX | First Space Tourists
12/31/2018
SpaceX | Moon Mission
12/31/2018
SpaceX | Refly a Rocket Within 24 Hours
12/31/2018
SpaceX | First Mission to Mars
12/31/2018
SpaceX | Red Dragon to Mars
12/31/2018
Tesla | A Tripling of Superchargers—to 18,000
07/11/2018
Tesla | Add 100 New Service Centers
06/30/2018
Tesla | Solar Roof Tile in Tuscan/Slate
03/31/2018
SpaceX | Space Internet—Second Prototype
03/31/2018
SpaceX | Fly with a Used Nose Cone
12/31/2017
SpaceX | Space Internet—First Prototype
12/31/2017
SpaceX | Recover a Rocket's Nose Cone
12/31/2017
Tesla | Gigafactory Starts Production
12/31/2017
Tesla | Model 3 Launch
12/31/2017
Tesla | Hands-Free Trip Across America
12/31/2017
Tesla | Model S Gets 1,000 km (621 miles) Under Ideal Conditions
12/31/2017
Tesla | Tesla Network
12/31/2017
Tesla | Two to Four New Gigafactories Announced
12/31/2017
Tesla | World's Largest Grid Battery in Australia
12/31/2017
Tesla | Add 350 Mobile Service Vans and 1,400 Technicians
12/31/2017
Tesla | Supercharger Network Across Canada
12/31/2017
Tesla | First 100,000 Model 3s
12/31/2017
Tesla | Model 3 All-Wheel Drive
10/31/2017
Tesla | Model 3 Sales to Customers Who Aren't Employees
09/30/2017
Tesla | First 70 Tesla Solar Stores
09/29/2017
SpaceX | Update to the Mars Plan
09/22/2017
Tesla | Solar Roof Installations
09/22/2017
Tesla | Solar Gigafactory Opening
09/22/2017
Tesla | $35,000 Base Configuration of the Model 3
07/23/2017
Tesla | First "Full Self-Driving" Features
07/09/2017
Boring | Car Elevator Prototype for the Electric Sled
07/07/2017
Tesla | First Model 3 Produced
07/02/2017
Tesla | Model 3 Release Date Announcement
06/23/2017
SpaceX | Falcon 9 Block 5 (Final Version)
05/03/2017
Tesla | Mini Bus Unveiling
05/03/2017
Tesla | Semi Unveiling
04/30/2017
Boring | Boring Machine Starts to Dig
04/30/2017
Tesla | Solar Roof Orders
02/25/2017
Boring | Boring Company Breaks Ground
01/31/2017
Tesla | Powerwall 2 Installations
12/31/2016
SpaceX | Reusable Rocket Returns to Space
12/31/2016
SpaceX | Crew Dragon Test Launch
12/31/2016
Tesla | Battery Deployment for California Grid
12/31/2016
Tesla | New Autopilot Reaches Parity With Old
03/31/2016
Tesla | Model 3 Unveiling
12/31/2015
SpaceX | Sexy Spacesuits
09/21/2015
Tesla | Powerwall Installations
12/31/2014
SpaceX | Unveil Crew Dragon Capsule
12/31/2014
SpaceX | Human Space Flight
10/09/2014
Tesla | First Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
07/01/2014
SpaceX | Land a Rocket Booster on Earth
04/30/2014
SpaceX | Emergency Launch Abort: In-Flight Test
12/31/2013
SpaceX | Emergency Launch Abort: Pad Test
12/31/2013
SpaceX | Falcon Heavy Launch
12/31/2013
Tesla | Model X Launch
12/31/2012
SpaceX | Falcon 9 Launch to GTO
12/31/2011
Tesla | Model S Launch
09/30/2009
SpaceX | Dragon Docks with Space Station
06/30/2008
SpaceX | Dragon Returns From Orbit
12/31/2007
SpaceX | Falcon 9 Launch
07/01/2007
Tesla | Roadster Launch
12/31/2005
SpaceX | Falcon 5
03/31/2004
SpaceX | Falcon 1 Launch

The Future According to Elon Musk presents three distinct views.

The Future According to Elon Musk presents two distinct views.

Did we miss a prediction? Send us a link!

Sources and methodology:

To assemble targets, updates, and completion dates for each project in this graphic, Bloomberg scoured Musk’s communications on Twitter, Instagram, public appearances, blog posts, group discussions on Reddit, analyst calls, shareholder meetings, Youtube videos, press releases, internal company emails, and more.

We focused on the most ambitious undertakings of Musk’s four primary companies: Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Company, and Neuralink. We didn’t include OpenAI, which is primarily a research group rather than a commercial enterprise, nor did we include previous endeavors Musk was involved with including Zip2, Paypal, and SolarCity prior to its acquisition by Tesla.

If Musk's projection was a general time period rather than a specific date, we set the target for the latest possible day in that range. For example, when Musk Tweeted that the first installations of solar shingles "will start next summer," we set the target for the last day of summer in North America: Sept. 22, 2017. The Falcon Heavy was initially supposed to have its maiden voyage "in the second half of 2013," so we set the target for the last day of the year: Dec. 31, 2013.

The proportion of time Musk devotes to each company is derived from a description he gave at Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in June 2017. "The Boring Company is maybe 2 percent of my time, Neuralink 3-5 percent, Open AI another couple percent,” Musk said. The rest is split almost evenly between Tesla and SpaceX, he said, but “slightly more Tesla—it’s like a drama magnet."

Correction, July 28: Corrects announcement date for Neuralink's brain interfaces for healthy people

Reporter: Tom Randall

Project manager: Thomas Houston

Editor: Francesca Levy

Development: James Singleton

Latest Updates

07/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Model 3 Launch
07/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Update: Model 3 All-Wheel Drive delayed by 6 months
07/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: $35,000 Base Configuration of the Model 3 by Fall 2017
07/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Model 3 Sales to Customers Who Aren't Employees by Late October 2017
07/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: A Tripling of Superchargers—to 18,000 by 2018
07/19/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Refly a Rocket Within 24 Hours by 2018
07/19/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Fly with a Used Nose Cone by Early 2018
07/15/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Half of U.S. Vehicles Will Be Electric by 2027
07/15/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: No More Steering Wheels by 2037
07/15/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: All U.S. Cars Will Be Autonomous by 2027
07/11/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Update to the Mars Plan by Sept. 25-29, 2017
07/11/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Add 100 New Service Centers by Mid-2018
07/11/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Add 350 Mobile Service Vans and 1,400 Technicians by Late 2017
07/07/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: First Model 3 Produced
07/06/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: World's Largest Grid Battery in Australia by December 2017
07/03/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Update: First 100,000 Model 3s delayed by 4 months
07/02/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Model 3 Release Date Announcement
06/29/2017
BORING COMPANY 🚇 | New Goal: Car Elevator Prototype for the Electric Sled by July 3-9 2017
06/25/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Recover a Rocket's Nose Cone by Late 2017
06/22/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | Update: Falcon Heavy Launch accelerated deadline by a month
06/06/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Model Y Launch by 2019
06/06/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Tesla Semi Scale Production by Mid-2019
06/06/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Electric Planes Become Compelling by 2022
05/20/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Update: Semi Unveiling delayed by 5 months
05/12/2017
BORING COMPANY 🚇 | Completed: Boring Machine Starts to Dig
05/10/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Update: Solar Roof Installations accelerated deadline by 3 months
05/10/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Solar Roof Orders
05/03/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Space Internet—First Prototype by Late 2017
05/03/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Space Internet—Second Prototype by Early 2018
05/03/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Space Internet—Mesh Network Complete by 2024
05/03/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Space Internet—Launch Campaign Starts by 2019
05/03/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Canceled: Mini Bus Unveiling
05/03/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: First 70 Tesla Solar Stores by 3rd quarter 2017
04/28/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Crewed Launch of the Mars Ship (ITS) by 2027
04/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Update: Autonomous Cars Are Capable of Letting Drivers Sleep accelerated deadline by a year
04/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Solar Roof Tile in Tuscan/Slate by Early 2018
04/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Powerwall 2 Installations
04/28/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Two to Four New Gigafactories Announced by Late 2017
04/20/2017
NEURALINK 💊 | New Goal: Brain Interfaces for Healthy People by 2027
04/20/2017
NEURALINK 💊 | New Goal: First Improvements to the Human Brain by 2021
04/13/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Pickup Truck Unveiling by Mid-2019
03/30/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Reusable Rocket Returns to Space
03/24/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Next Gen Roadster Launch by 2019
02/27/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: First Space Tourists by Late 2018
02/27/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Moon Mission by Late 2018
02/27/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | Update: Crew Dragon Test Launch delayed by a year
02/18/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | Update: Human Space Flight delayed by 3 years
02/17/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | Update: First Mission to Mars delayed by 2 years
02/17/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | Update: Red Dragon to Mars delayed by 2 years
02/13/2017
OTHER | New Goal: Almost all new cars fully autonomous by 2027
02/13/2017
OTHER | New Goal: Full Transition to Electric Vehicles by 2057
02/13/2017
OTHER | New Goal: 12% to 15% of Human Workforce Unemployed by Automation by 2037
02/08/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Update: New Autopilot Reaches Parity With Old delayed by 3 months
01/27/2017
BORING COMPANY 🚇 | Completed: Boring Company Breaks Ground
01/23/2017
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: First "Full Self-Driving" Features by July 2017
01/21/2017
SPACEX 🚀 | Update: Falcon 9 Block 5 (Final Version) delayed by 6 months
01/04/2017
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Gigafactory Starts Production
12/31/2016
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Battery Deployment for California Grid
12/27/2016
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Solar Gigafactory Opening by Summer 2017
12/27/2016
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Solar Gigafactory Reaches Full Production by 2019
12/24/2016
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Supercharger Network Across Canada by 2017
10/20/2016
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Hands-Free Trip Across America by Late 2017
10/20/2016
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Tesla Network by 2017
09/27/2016
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Interplanetary Transport System's Maiden Voyage by 2022
06/06/2016
SPACEX 🚀 | Update: Humans Depart for Mars accelerated deadline by 7 years
05/04/2016
TESLA 🔋 | Update: 500,000 Cars a Year accelerated deadline by 2 years
05/04/2016
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: 1 Million Cars a Year by 2020
05/04/2016
TESLA 🔋 | Update: Gigafactory Reaches Full Production accelerated deadline by 2 years
04/08/2016
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Rocket Lands on a Drone Ship
03/31/2016
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Model 3 Unveiling
01/29/2016
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Powerwall Installations
12/21/2015
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Land a Rocket Booster on Earth
09/29/2015
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Model X Launch
09/23/2015
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Model S Gets 1,200 km (746 miles) Under Ideal Conditions by 2020
09/23/2015
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Model S Gets 1,000 km (621 miles) Under Ideal Conditions by 2017
06/08/2015
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Emergency Launch Abort: Pad Test
02/11/2015
TESLA 🔋 | New Goal: Tesla Valued at $700 Billion by 2025
01/06/2015
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Sexy Spacesuits by 2015
10/09/2014
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Autopilot Launch
10/09/2014
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: First Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
05/29/2014
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Unveil Crew Dragon Capsule
12/03/2013
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Falcon 9 Launch to GTO
07/24/2012
SPACEX 🚀 | New Goal: Emergency Launch Abort: In-Flight Test by April 2014
06/22/2012
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Model S Launch
05/25/2012
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Dragon Docks with Space Station
12/15/2010
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Dragon Returns From Orbit
06/04/2010
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Falcon 9 Launch
10/28/2008
SPACEX 🚀 | Completed: Falcon 1 Launch
03/17/2008
TESLA 🔋 | Completed: Roadster Launch
12/31/2005
SPACEX 🚀 | Canceled: Falcon 5

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Boring Company’s Goals

  • Tracked Projects ⊶ 3
  • Completed ⊶ 2
  • Late ⊶ 1
  • Share Of Musk’s Time spent on Boring: 2%

Boring Company

The plan is to make tunnel drilling fast and cheap, and to build a network of underground express lanes for public and private transportation. A massive earth-boring machine named Gadot is drilling its first hole in Hawthorne, California.

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Neuralink’s Goals

  • Tracked Projects ⊶ 2
  • Completed ⊶ 0
  • Late ⊶ 0
  • Share Of Musk’s Time spent on Neuralink: 3-5%

Neuralink

Musk plans to help humans and computers communicate exponentially faster than they do now, by directly linking the brain to artificial intelligence. The first applications will be for people with brain injuries. Later, it could transform what it means to be human.

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SpaceX’s Goals

  • Tracked Projects ⊶ 32
  • Completed ⊶ 10
  • Late ⊶ 6
  • Share Of Musk’s Time spent on SpaceX: 45%

SpaceX

Musk wants to make humans a multi-planetary species. SpaceX pioneered reusable rockets, which lower costs, and is designing ships that will ferry colonists to Mars and beyond.

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Tesla’s Goals

  • Tracked Projects ⊶ 50
  • Completed ⊶ 14
  • Late ⊶ 3
  • Share Of Musk’s Time spent on Tesla: 47%

Tesla

Tesla’s battery-powered sedans and SUVs broke records for the quickest and safest passenger vehicles ever tested. Tesla is also the biggest U.S. installer of rooftop solar. Long-haul trucks, self-driving cars, and ride-hailing services are on the to-do list.

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The Past
The Future