Real Estate: Property Management

A-Living

As the turmoil in China’s housing market spreads to related businesses, BI is concerned about the effect on A-Living, which manages properties for developer Agile. A shrinking pipeline of new houses risks cutting into revenue, which could cause the company to miss net profit consensus by about 10% this year. —Patrick Wong

Technology: IT Services

Accenture

The IT services company is poised to benefit from increased artificial-intelligence-related projects because of its strong consulting relationships. While Accenture’s near-term sales outlook is hazy given weak enterprise tech spending, BI anticipates a rebound in bookings in the second half of the year. Easier comparisons with 2023’s results, a recovery in cloud spending and new AI-related projects point to a big jump in new contracts. —Anurag Rana

Technology: Software

Adobe

New generative artificial intelligence features that can command higher prices have the potential to add $1 billion to Adobe’s bottom line in the next two years by boosting current users’ productivity and attracting nonexperts to programs like Photoshop, Illustrator and Premiere Pro. BI expects analysts to boost their estimates for Adobe in 2024 as the market recognizes AI-related contributions and a rebound in IT spending. —Anurag Rana

Financials: Payment Processing

Adyen

After a market-share loss, disappointing revenue and a reset of consensus expectations last year, the global payment processor is poised for a more successful 2024. Adyen’s ability to lower overall transaction costs for merchants, thanks to its single-platform approach, positions it to gain market share. Estimates reflect slowing macroeconomic growth and competition, which should improve profitability as the company takes business from other fintech operators. —Tomasz Noetzel

Financials: Banks

Al Rajhi Bank

The Saudi lender has faced profit-margin headwinds from rising costs of funding and a slow repricing of its lending portfolio. If the US Federal Reserve starts loosening rates again by midyear, as consensus increasingly expects, Al Rajhi stands to benefit: The lender’s margin should outperform peers as it leverages its strong Islamic banking franchise to gather cheaper funding. —Edmond Christou

Communication: Internet

Alphabet

BI expects Alphabet’s operating profit margin to beat consensus by 200 to 300 basis points in 2024-25. The launch of the company’s Bard artificial intelligence program is boosting search-related advertising, and AI will drive strong cloud computing growth in the near term. YouTube’s NFL Sunday Ticket subscriptions have been surprisingly strong, and layoffs are poised to reduce fixed costs by more than $3 billion. —Mandeep Singh

Discretionary: E-commerce

Amazon.com

Although the company is best known for its marketplace, Amazon’s greatest growth this year will be in cloud computing and advertising. BI expects cloud revenue to rise almost 20%, well above consensus, aided by artificial intelligence adoption and a rebound in corporate IT spending. Double-digit e-commerce retail sales gains should spur more digital advertising revenue, allowing the segment to surpass estimates of $55 billion. —Poonam Goyal

Discretionary: Apparel

Anta Sports

The Summer Olympics in Paris should boost interest in sportswear, and China’s likely success on the medal podium presents a big opportunity for the Chinese athletic apparel giant, the official sponsor for the country’s athletes. BI’s analysis suggests 2024 revenue growth will outpace the market’s consensus for a 15% increase. A possible 2024 initial public offering of its subsidiary Amer Sports (owner of Arc’teryx, Wilson, Salomon and more) would be another catalyst for growth. —Catherine Lim

Discretionary: Apparel

Aritzia

The Canadian apparel maker is on track to report stronger profit margins than analysts expect this year. Rising e-commerce sales and the popularity of product lines such as its Super Puff parkas point to increasing revenue as Aritzia expands in the US from a base of just 54 stores. And cost-cutting measures like streamlining its warehouse space augur an earnings boost. —Mary Ross Gilbert

Discretionary: Autos

Aston Martin

Three new sports cars—the Vantage 12, Valkyrie and DB12—along with revved-up SUV sales and success at Formula One races could propel James Bond’s favorite carmaker to a level of profitability not seen since it went public in 2018. BI expects a 25% operating profit margin this year, rising as high as 30% by 2026-27. That would be a year earlier than the company had said it wanted to reach that goal, positioning it better than Porsche—though still below Ferrari. —Michael Dean

Financials: Insurance

Axa

Last year was a good one for property and casualty insurers such as Axa, but new accounting standards that the industry is facing threaten profitability in 2024-25. The rapid rise in interest rates helped boost 2023 profits, but BI expects this trend is likely to reverse as falling rates and the potential rule changes would make insurers’ earnings more sensitive to shifting bond yields. —Charles Graham

Financials: Banks

Barclays

With credit costs likely to trend higher through 2024, Barclays faces the dual headwinds of a margin squeeze in UK retail banking and concerns over the resilience of European investment banking models. The bank has lowered its UK margin guidance, but BI sees more cuts to come for consensus estimates in this core market. —Philip Richards

Health Care: Biotech

BeiGene

The Chinese biotech’s landmark blood cancer drug Brukinsa is poised to be a multibillion-dollar blockbuster, and the company has more than 40 other molecules in development. While the US accounts for 75% of Brukinsa sales, BeiGene’s success and its strong product pipeline indicate plenty of potential growth in the home market. —Leslie Yang

Health Care: Medical Devices

Boston Scientific

Consensus on revenue and profit growth look too conservative, with momentum from the medical device maker’s Watchman and Farapulse heart-rhythm products potentially driving upward revisions of estimates. BI expects 25% growth for both businesses as Boston Scientific launches an upgrade to the Watchman and expects approval of a new catheter called Farawave in the second half. —Matt Henriksson

Communication: Telecommunications

BT

The UK carrier must navigate roadblocks such as a massive workforce reduction, increased competition from Vodafone Group and Liberty Global, and agitation from shareholders Deutsche Telekom and French telecommunications entrepreneur Patrick Drahi. But with earnings estimates at five-year lows, incoming Chief Executive Officer Allison Kirkby should be able to deliver better revenue and profits than the low-ball consensus expectations. —Matthew Bloxham

Discretionary: Autos

BYD

With a stronger premium lineup and increasing exports, the Chinese automaker is poised for robust sales growth. BI expects new sources of revenue, combined with BYD’s scale and vertical integration in batteries and semiconductors, to help the company maintain its profit margins on electric vehicles despite increasing competition from Chinese and European rivals. —Joanna Chen

Energy: LNG

Cheniere

Consensus expectations for the liquefied natural gas producer look too pessimistic. Although Cheniere’s operating profit is set to fall as prices retreat from last year’s highs, the downside risk is limited as almost all the company’s LNG export volume for 2024 is presold and backed by long-term contracts. And the start of deliveries from the Corpus Christi Stage 3 project later in the year might prompt higher cash flow estimates. —Talon Custer

Staples: Beverages

Diageo

The world’s largest booze maker is holding excess inventory in the Americas as consumers start fretting about a slowing economy. But while profit estimates may slide in the first half of 2024, BI expects a recovery later in the year. With premium and superpremium brands accounting for more than 60% of Diageo’s sales, the company is well positioned for a longer-term shift toward consumers drinking less but choosing pricier tipple. —Duncan Fox

Technology: Semiconductor Equipment

Disco

The producer of semiconductor manufacturing gear is poised to benefit as greater use of artificial intelligence boosts demand for its chipmaking tools. And increasing sales of electric vehicles are lifting deliveries of chip dicers and grinders, where Disco has market share approaching 80%. BI expects the company’s revenue growth to top 20% this year, versus consensus in the midteens. —Masahiro Wakasugi

Communication: Media & Entertainment

Disney

As the entertainment giant gains full control of Hulu and finalizes plans for an ESPN streaming service this year, the pieces of its streaming puzzle should finally come together. With Disney anchored by the strength of its amusement parks and rising confidence in its online strategy, BI’s analysis shows the company’s earnings per share jumping 20% or more annually through 2026. —Geetha Ranganathan

Health Care: Pharmaceuticals

Eli Lilly

Excitement about the weight-loss market should accelerate as Eli Lilly’s Zepbound makes its debut. Given its better efficacy data and lower price, its rollout should outpace that of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. BI’s analysis points to $1.5 billion in 2024 revenue, driven largely by the US, with European sales picking up if the drug is authorized there early in the year, as expected. —John Murphy

Energy: Gas Distribution

ENN Energy

Beijing’s green light on higher residential gas tariffs points to greater profitability for distributors such as ENN. BI’s scenario shows the pipeline operator’s earnings beating consensus estimates by as much as 20% this year. —Henik Fung

Staples: Personal Care

Estée Lauder

The owner of Clinique, La Mer, MAC and the recently acquired Tom Ford brand is getting a much-needed makeover in 2024. Estée Lauder suffered heavily from overstocking in Asia and a slower-than-expected recovery in China last year, which sparked serial profit warnings. Inventories should normalize in the second half of 2024, and a continued recovery in global travel points to positive surprises. —Deborah Aitken

Energy: Integrated Oil

ExxonMobil

The energy giant’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources will transform Exxon into a key player in the Permian Basin, the largest US oilfield. The basin’s potential for further development should accelerate Exxon’s turnaround, so BI expects the company to expand its lead on Chevron Corp. and European integrated oil companies in return on capital this year. —Fernando Valle

Energy: Solar

First Solar

Plunging solar panel prices and fierce competition among equipment suppliers pose challenges for the industry, but First Solar should be largely insulated. Amid a rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity, the company has locked in above-market prices for all its anticipated production through 2026. The long-term outlook is further buoyed by clean energy support in the Inflation Reduction Act and rising tariff barriers on imports from China. —Rob Barnett

Discretionary: Gaming

Galaxy Entertainment

After expanding its megaresort on Macau’s Cotai Strip, Galaxy stands to increase its share of the city’s gambling market to 21% in 2024, up from 19% last year. BI’s analysis shows that the enlarged facility—including new hotels from Raffles and Andaz that may attract wealthier mass-market gamblers and young leisure travelers—should help the company boost its gambling revenue this year by 36%, versus the 22% consensus for the industry. —Angela Hanlee

Industrials: Defense

General Dynamics

Elevated geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia are spurring strong sales and higher profit margins for the manufacturer of weapons ranging from artillery shells to warships. And with rising deliveries of its Gulfstream private jets—two new models are due this year—BI’s analysis suggests General Dynamics will see better-than-expected earnings growth. —Will Lee

Materials: Mining

Glencore

The mining giant is poised to take the first step in its journey away from coal, which has accounted for more than a quarter of earnings over the past decade. But Glencore will get bigger in fossil fuels before it gets out: It’s buying the steelmaking-coal unit of Teck Resources, which it plans to combine with its own thermal coal assets. The aim is to create a business that it will spin off in coming years, which would clean up Glencore’s product portfolio and burnish its image among investors. —Alon Olsha

Health Care: Hospitals

HCA

The US hospital chain faces cost and revenue challenges that point to a reduction in its operating margin. Wages are increasing, especially for nurses, as are nonlabor costs because of general inflation. And fewer physician visits indicate softening demand for care in areas such as elective surgeries. —Glen Losev

Financials: Banks

HSBC

Analysts continue to ratchet up their predictions for stock buybacks from the megabank, and that will likely continue this year. BI expects shareholder returns including dividends to exceed $40 billion for 2023-24. The downturn in Chinese real estate—a potential headache for HSBC because of its 40% stake in the country’s Bank of Communications—appears manageable, with any potential write-downs on that stake unlikely to limit its payout capacity. —Tomasz Noetzel

Financials: Banks

ICBC

China’s biggest lender faces multiple challenges this year, setting a grim tone for the industry. Its loans to the troubled property sector and weak local government finances threaten to increase credit costs after a surprisingly strong 2023. And Beijing’s resolve to stimulate the economy will likely mean lower interest rates for longer, keeping a lid on ICBC’s margin expansion. —Francis Chan

Materials: Mining

Impala Platinum

Weak precious-metal prices spell trouble for South African miners, with several on track to miss 2024 earnings forecasts. BI analysis shows Impala Platinum is one of the most at risk because of its substantial palladium production; auto industry demand for the metal, used in catalytic converters, is fading as the transition to EVs progresses. —Emmanuel Munjeri

Technology: Software

Intuit

The provider of do-it-yourself tax software is riding the artificial intelligence wave, rolling out a platform called AI-Assist to enhance its services in both the consumer and business segments. BI’s scenario shows the company is doing a better job of converting initial signups into paying customers who are filing their returns with TurboTax, which could push 2025 revenue $2 billion beyond consensus. —Niraj Patel

Staples: Beverages

Keurig Dr Pepper

The beverage maker is brewing up an earnings recovery for 2024, driven by its coffee segment. The business accounts for about a third of the company’s profit, and home use is stabilizing after a volatile period, first boosted by remote work during the pandemic, then slammed with the return to office. BI expects higher sales volumes and wider profit margins for Keurig’s K-cup coffee pods this year, pushing earnings per share above current consensus. —Kenneth Shea

Industrials: Trucking

Knight-Swift

The freight-hauler’s strong track record of buying and integrating full-load carriers, as well as its steady expansion into the less-than-truckload market, should propel earnings growth beyond consensus expectations. With the trucking cycle poised to recover, Knight-Swift’s acquisition last year of US Xpress is poised to pay off. The trucker should also make further progress toward its goal of creating a national carrier through internal growth and possible M&A. —Lee Klaskow

Communication: Internet

Lyft

A California Supreme Court case that threatens to force gig economy companies to treat drivers in the state as employees poses an enormous risk to Lyft and its peers. A decision is likely in the second half of the year, and a ruling against the companies could hike Lyft’s costs by more than a quarter of 2024 consensus sales, forcing job cuts and fare hikes. But while there’s reason for concern—the court could have let the companies’ earlier victory stand—BI’s analysis suggests they have a strong chance of winning, an outcome the market seems to be betting against. —Matthew Schettenhelm

Industrials: Construction

MasTec

The infrastructure contractor faces a make-or-break 2024 after lowering guidance repeatedly over the past two years. MasTec has faced weakness in clean energy, electric power and communications, and it’s struggled to integrate acquisitions aimed at diversifying away from oil and gas projects. With elevated leverage following its 2022 purchase of renewable-energy-focused IEA, the company has the potential to exceed consensus estimates this year as it lowers its debt and interest rates fall. —Scott Levine

Communication: Internet

Match Group

Match’s rebranding of the Tinder dating platform, the addition of weekly subscriptions and better artificial-intelligence-enabled photo selection are poised to pay off this year as more people sign up for paid services. And its Hinge app is continuing to grow in the US even as it plans a global rollout. Add it up, and BI expects Match to beat consensus revenue. —Kevin Tsao

Technology: Semiconductor Manufacturing

MediaTek

Growing smartphone demand and the rise of artificial intelligence applications for mobile and home devices suggest a potential earnings surprise for Asia’s largest fabless chipmaker. BI expects MediaTek’s Dimensity processors to gain market share in premium smartphones versus rival products from Qualcomm, and partnerships with Meta and Nvidia are set to unlock opportunities in the alternative/virtual-reality, PC and automotive markets. —Charles Shum

Health Care: Pharmaceuticals

Novo Nordisk

With the US and the European Union poised to approve a weight-loss pill, the pharma giant is on track for a dramatic expansion of its Wegovy obesity franchise this year, as oral dosing would unlock massive demand with an increase in supply. Novo Nordisk also anticipates approval for using its weight-loss drug as a treatment for cardiovascular ailments. BI’s scenario projects sales of the injectable drug to double to at least $8 billion in 2024, even with supply constraints and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound entering the market. —Michael Shah

Discretionary: Homebuilding

Persimmon

Amid pervasive worries about UK housing, the market appears overly pessimistic about Persimmon. With volumes down almost 40% in 2023, it was indeed a lousy year for the homebuilder. Estimates point to just a 6% rebound in 2024, but BI expects lower mortgage rates and new projects to help hammer home about twice that. —Iwona Hovenko

Technology: Software

Roblox

A partnership with Meta—and possibly with Apple—will give the gaming platform a boost in advertising and access to new players using virtual-reality devices. Roblox is expanding into education and e-commerce, and as a social media site it’s beating rivals in attracting Gen Z users, putting it on track to exceed consensus estimates this year. —Mandeep Singh

Materials: Chemicals

Sabic

The Saudi conglomerate’s sale of its steel unit to focus on its core petrochemicals business is well-timed for the company to profit from a potential second-half recovery in the global economy. Sabic, the world’s most valuable chemical producer, benefits from access to cheap Saudi gas, helping push its profit margins far beyond those of peers and positioning it for even better performance if oil prices bounce back. —Salih Yilmaz

Technology: Software

SAP

SAP’s cloud business is set to gain as corporations look to reduce the cost of data centers. That could drive new cloud-based orders up at least 20% this year, with BI’s analysis suggesting consensus estimates for 2025 ticking up to low double-digit sales growth. —Anurag Rana

Materials: Building Materials

Sika

The world’s top chemicals producer for the construction industry is poised to surpass expectations this year if it can successfully integrate MBCC, the German rival it bought in May. Adding MBCC’s specialized product range, as well as its strong foothold in Japan, India and Saudi Arabia, will complement Sika’s strengths in Europe and the Americas. —Sonia Baldeira

Industrials: Waste Management

Stericycle

Analysts seem overly optimistic about a profit boost from a new enterprise-resource-planning system at Stericycle, which disposes of medical waste and offers secure shredding of sensitive documents. Leading indicators such as fewer pickups from doctors’ offices and weak prices for the shredded paper that the company sells foreshadow disappointing revenue this year. —Scott Levine

Real Estate: Developer

Sun Hung Kai

Hong Kong’s largest property developer risks missing its contracted sales target of HK$33 billion ($4.2 billion) next summer as high mortgage rates continue to bite. BI is concerned that disappointing sales and shrinking margins on property development will make it hard for Sun Hung Kai to sustain its annual dividend. —Patrick Wong

Financials: Banks

Truist

The lender is trying to build capital as the Federal Reserve moves toward tighter rules on the reserves banks must hold. One source of cash could be a sale of Truist’s insurance brokerage unit, which would strengthen its capital base and let it offload underwater securities. The company could also put the funds to work in investments and lending at today’s elevated interest rates, boosting its profit outlook. —Herman Chan

Industrials: Railroad

Union Pacific

Under new Chief Executive Officer Jim Vena, the railroad is poised to boost its safety record and add market share. Vena’s background in precision scheduling during his four decades at Canadian National will help him focus on productivity gains and cutting overhead, putting Union Pacific on track to consensus-beating margins this year. —Lee Klaskow

Communication: Media

Vivendi

The European media company’s transformation is poised for an unexpected turn this year as its board considers a split into three separately listed units: Havas (advertising), Canal+ (pay TV) and an investment arm (holding multibillion-dollar stakes in Lagardère, Universal Music and Telecom Italia). The move aims to narrow a large conglomerate discount and could trigger a wave of industrywide mergers and acquisitions as rivals react. —Matthew Bloxham