Following our list of 50 Companies to Watch in January and second-quarter update in April, we’re back with 10 specifically for the third quarter based on scenarios from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. The companies in the spotlight span sectors and regions and are part of a larger group of high-confidence Focus Ideas that BI analysts identify on an ongoing basis. Each scenario outlines important catalysts coming in the next few months that support our case.

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Banks

CBA

Forecast ☀️
Australian interest rates look set to rise aggressively, which promises to bolster profits for the largest Aussie bank. —Matt Ingram
Data Sheet
Market value $105B
Sales, last 12 months $21.6B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 1%
CEO/managing director Matt Comyn
Legal name Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Triggers

CBA’s net interest margins are likely to climb as the central bank boosts rates, and the company faces less exposure to rising costs than peers.

With the central bank expected to continue tightening, a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis predicts CBA’s earnings in the next six months can beat consensus by 50%.
Calendar
The Royal Bank of Australia is on track to raise its “cash rate,” which stood at 0.1% as recently as April, to 2.8% by yearend.
Autos

CATL

Forecast ☀️
The world’s largest battery maker stands to benefit as metal costs decline and demand accelerates. —Steve Man
Data Sheet
Market value $182B
Sales, last 12 months $24.9B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 117%
Chairman Robin Zeng
Legal name Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.
Triggers

CATL can look forward to a powerful combination of falling prices for the metals needed to make batteries, growing adoption of lower-cost technologies, and a recovery in electric vehicle production.

A Bl analysis suggests 2023 earnings may be as much as 25% higher than the consensus estimate.
Calendar
Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel—key ingredients for EV batteries—appear to have peaked and are poised for a pullback during the third quarter.
EV sales could begin to recover in August and September as Covid-19 restrictions ease, fuel prices remain elevated, and supply chains improve, boosting demand for batteries.
ECommerce

EBay

Forecast ☀️
The original used-goods e-commerce giant aims to keep a higher percentage of revenue from merchandise sales on its platform by offering a host of new services. —Poonam Goyal
Data Sheet
Market value $24B
Sales, last 12 months $10.3B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus -7%
President/CEO Jamie Iannone
Legal name EBay Inc.
Triggers

New features, including enhancements to payments, advertising, and authentication, could boost the share of overall revenue EBay keeps for itself—what the industry calls its “take rate"—by 100 to 200 basis points, well above consensus estimates.

The services, which BI believes will be well-accepted, can tack on fees, driving a sales rebound of 4% to 6% in 2023, compared with a 7% forecast decline in 2022.
Calendar
After their release early in the second half, EBay should quickly see the positive impact of new offerings such as promoted listings, paid authentication, and its first digital wallet.
Hospitals

HCA

Forecast ☀️
US hospitals are looking beyond the pandemic at receding labor costs and a recovery in elective surgical procedures. —Glen Losev
Data Sheet
Market value $50B
Sales, last 12 months $59.7B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 3%
CEO Sam Hazen
Legal name HCA Healthcare Inc.
Triggers

As expensive nurse contracts roll off and physicians work through the backlog of inpatient surgeries, HCA and other hospital companies should see profit margins rise.

The consensus among analysts is for flat margins from 2022 to 2024 for US hospital operators, but a BI analysis sees a jump of 240 basis points starting in the second half of 2022, assuming a new Covid-19 variant doesn’t take hold.
Calendar
A majority of longer-term contracts with US travel nurses end in September, and hospital utilization should improve with growing inpatient procedures.
Media

ITV

Forecast ☁️
The UK commercial broadcaster’s earnings are at risk from increased competition and a decline in advertising. —Matt Bloxham
Data Sheet
Market value $3B
Sales, last 12 months $4.8B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 4%
CEO Carolyn McCall
Legal name ITV Plc
Triggers

ITV faces threats to advertisers’ campaign budgets from inflation and weaker consumer spending, while Netflix and Amazon.com are becoming a threat as they prepare shows funded by ads.

World Cup soccer advertising late in the year won’t offset waning corporate budgets as inflation hits spending. BI’s analysis points to a miss of about 15% on the consensus operating profit estimate.
Calendar
ITV’s interim results in July should include details on third-quarter advertising demand and an update on Netflix’s new ad-funded plans, which would make the streamer a potential competitor to ITV for ad spending.
Aerospace/Defense

Leonardo

Forecast ☀️
A combination of recovering air travel and increasing European defense spending bodes well for the Italian aerospace company. —George Ferguson
Data Sheet
Market value $6B
Sales, last 12 months $16.7B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 5%
CEO Alessandro Profumo
Legal name Leonardo SpA
Triggers

Leonardo’s civil aviation margins stand to improve with increasing airliner production and helicopter utilization, while likely increases in European defense spending play to its electronics business, which includes optronics, infrared search, air traffic, and combat control.

With Leonardo’s civil aerospace and defense businesses ramping up, BI’s analysis points to operating profit beating consensus by more than 15% in 2023.
Calendar
Midyear results in July should show better helicopter utilization from offshore oil platforms and ATR turboprop production, as well as indications of higher EU outlays for defense.
Packaged Food

Nomad Foods

Forecast ☁️
The European frozen-food leader faces rapidly rising costs and a slowdown in the acquisitions that have been key to its growth. —Duncan Fox
Data Sheet
Market value $3B
Sales, last 12 months $3.1B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 9%
CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker
Legal name Nomad Foods Ltd.
Triggers

Nomad’s BirdsEye and Findus brands will have a hard time passing on the increased costs of fish, meat, produce, packaging, and energy to consumers, and its debt load (now four times operating profit, up from 2.9 times in 2020) threatens to constrain acquistions.

Nomad will struggle to raise prices on its value-oriented brands, creating pressure on gross margins. BI sees 2022-23 earnings falling 10% short of the consensus estimate.
Calendar
Inflation in the UK, Germany, and Italy threatens to bite in August with second-quarter results set to show margin erosion and weaker demand.
Gaming

Roblox

Forecast ☀️
Revenue from virtual currency sales—what the company calls “bookings"—looks set to surprise with growth in user-generated games and e-commerce in the metaverse. —Mandeep Singh
Data Sheet
Market value $20B
Sales, last 12 months $2.1B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 4%
Chairman/president/CEO/co-founder David Baszucki
Legal name Roblox Corp.
Triggers

Roblox, which benefited from the surge in online gaming during the pandemic, is adding offerings with growing content for virtual/augmented reality headsets, as well as shopping opportunities to buy branded goods such as Nike sneakers.

Bl’s scenario analysis points to bookings that could come in $200 million higher than the consensus estimate in 2022 and $500 million higher in 2023 as the user base expands and time spent using Roblox’s products ramps up.
Calendar
Roblox should see an inflection in bookings late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter as it launches its new store.
Software

Salesforce

Forecast ☀️
The biggest cloud software company in sales-automation and customer service is set for a substantial jump in its profit margin. —Anurag Rana
Data Sheet
Market value $170B
Sales, last 12 months $27.9B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 25%
Chair/co-CEO/co-founder Marc Benioff
Legal name Salesforce Inc.
Triggers

Salesforce has historically had high sales and marketing expenses. But its ability to serve customers virtually during the pandemic shows room for those costs to drop significantly.

A BI analysis suggests a potential 200-basis-point improvement in operating margins for each of the next two years, driving a 10% surprise in earnings.
Calendar
Look for margins to beat expectations in second-quarter fiscal 2023 results, which are set to be released in August.
Restaurants

Yum

Forecast ☁️
Falling consumer sentiment puts revenue and earnings of the parent of KFC and Pizza Hut at risk. —Michael Halen
Data Sheet
Market value $33B
Sales, last 12 months $6.6B
Expected 2022 revenue growth, consensus 5%
CEO David Gibbs
Legal name Yum! Brands Inc.
Triggers

Yum! Brands faces a trio of challenges in 2022: tough comparisons (from last year’s stimulus), rising inflation, and plunging disposable income for consumers.

The consensus among analysts is for solid KFC same-store sales in 2022, which BI deems highly unlikely.
Calendar
Second-quarter results scheduled for July could reveal same-store sales below market expectations by 340 basis points at KFC and 140 basis points at Pizza Hut.

Market value as of July 1.

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