Watch Out:
Populists in the Piazza
A referendum unleashes forces that could change Europe. Again.
In the town of Pontida at the foot of the Italian Alps, Alberto Frassoni cheerfully admits he knows nothing about the country’s upcoming referendum, not even the date.
What the unemployed 48-year-old does know is that the economy isn’t working for him.
“The euro ruined us because prices doubled,” says Frassoni, who supports the anti-immigrant Northern League that wants Italy to abandon the single currency. “A few things have changed, there are better public services for young and old people, but my job opportunities haven’t changed.” Foreigners “have taken work away from me,” he says.
It’s the sort of discontent that populists are thriving on, taking them from the vocal fringes of politics right into the mainstream. After Britain’s stunning decision to withdraw from the European Union, now comes another ballot that could topple a leader should Italy defy Prime Minister Matteo Renzi over what, on paper at least, is the constitutional issue of reducing the size and powers of the Senate.
To capture the mood before the make-or-break referendum on Dec. 4, Bloomberg reporters traveled from the Alps down to the coast of Sicily. They stopped in four towns to talk to people before a vote that Renzi has made a de facto ballot on his leadership by promising to resign if he were to lose.
Crunch Time
What is clear is that many voters don’t know what it’s really about. They fret over the economy, immigration and Italy’s future in or out of the euro.
Renzi, 41, now has a little over a month to champion a reform that promises to end the political instability that has toppled dozens of governments since World War II. But polls show he could be narrowly defeated, an outcome that is likely to lead to elections and potentially a leader who wants to take Italy out of the euro.
Pontida stands out neither for its beauty nor rough edges, riches nor poverty. Every year, though, it hosts the annual rally of the Northern League, making it a touchstone for its followers. A poster on the main street proclaims: “Renzi slave of Europe and banks.”
The good news for the prime minister is that Frassoni, a former delivery driver, is among a third of the electorate who polls show might not even vote. There’s also at least 20 percent of voters who haven’t made up their minds in surveys that put Renzi’s “Yes” campaign trailing by four percentage points.
I believe in what Renzi does and says, (he is) someone who has put himself on the line a lot.
Among them is local schoolteacher Laura Salmoiraghi, 46. She will, however, decide “on the merits of the reform” rather than on what she thinks of Renzi, who “has put himself on the line a lot.”
Outside the school, Monica Ravasio, 44, waits to pick up one of her daughters at lunchtime. She doesn’t like Renzi, however she will vote “Yes” because she wants fewer senators. “There is too much waste, too many politicians, too many people who live off politics,” she says. Barbara Carozzi, 50, also waiting outside the school, disagrees. She will vote “No” because “the constitution is fine as it is, and it would be better if Renzi quits.”
Ferrari Town
The picture of a nation partly confused, partly exasperated and wholly divided holds true 200 kilometers to the southeast in Maranello.
It’s the home of Ferrari and you can hear supercars being tested on the Fiorano race track pretty much all over town. The area is also a symbol of Italian economic success and Renzi proudly hosted German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Ferrari factory in August.
Ugo Biolchini, 60, escorts tourists who pay 60 euros ($66) for 10 minutes behind the wheel of a Ferrari 430. The reforms won’t change anything because “the people in power will stay the same” so he will vote against. Biolchini, who used to vote for ex-premier Silvio Berlusconi, wants the Senate abolished completely, a flat tax for companies, and immigrants stopped “before they leave” their homeland because they take up all the subsidies.
On Freedom Square, the main piazza of Maranello, Romano Bonacorsi, 78, has no idea what the referendum is about. “Look, believe me, I’m not interested in these things,” the retired ceramic worker says. What does he think of politicians? “Garbage, all of them,” he says, “and the people who pay taxes are the idiots.” Right now, he wouldn’t know which party to vote for, let alone how to vote in the referendum.
Renziland
About 150 kilometers further south in Pontassieve, apprentice gardener Jonatan Maggi, 19, is doing donuts on his Derbi GPR 50 motorcycle in the piazza. The reform is “all Greek” to him, but he plans to vote for the first time, he says after stopping his spins. He will find out exactly what the referendum is about by asking at the town hall. At least he thinks that’s where he needs to go.
This Tuscan town is where Renzi lives with his wife, a schoolteacher, and three children. Born next door in Florence, he returns at weekends as often as he can. He’s also liked here: Pontassieve is a bastion of his Democratic Party.
Claudia, 29, is among his supporters. She didn’t want to be identified by her family name because her employer forbade her to talk publicly about politics. She is “pretty much convinced” she will vote for the reform because parliament needs to be “streamlined.” Renzi should make more changes, though “he’s the only one who can change things because he’s young.”
(Renzi is) the only one who can change things because he's young.
A short walk away, Renzi will have a hard time convincing bar owner Gabriella Dimauro, 28, who defines herself as an “anarchist.” Her vote will be “against the government.”
Dimauro was hopeful when Renzi came to power in 2014, yet “he hasn’t done what he says, like all politicians who come to power, who are very good at talking but then do nothing.”
Asked about Renzi’s promise to quit if he loses the vote, she smiles: “Well, it would make me feel good, but the truth is, no one believes it.”
Door to Sicily
Down in northwest Sicily, Alcamo is among the score of towns and cities -- they include Rome and Turin -- where the populist Five Star Movement won mayoral elections in June. With its platform of a vote on keeping the euro, the party poses the biggest threat to Renzi.
Five Star mayor elected (June 2016) 
Seats won
On Alcamo’s main street, fishmonger Antonino Messina is voting “No” in the referendum and thinks egotism is behind Renzi’s proposed reform. The 57-year-old backed Five Star “to change the people in power more than anything else, because this town was stagnating.” Messina wants “open doors, but with rules” for immigrants. EU rules have “tied the hands of workers, there’s less fish to sell and the price goes up.”
En route to work through the town’s Market Square, Erika Pampalone, 32, says that despite being a civil lawyer “for the first time I find myself going to vote without knowing exactly what I’m voting for.” The reform “seems full of contradictions, mistakes” and there’s no guarantee it will achieve its aim of streamlining the legislative process.
We haven't allowed people to vote freely with comments like Renzi saying he would quit if the referendum goes badly
She doesn’t yet know how she will vote. “What I will say is that we haven’t allowed people to vote freely with comments like Renzi saying he would quit if the referendum goes badly,” Pampalone says. “When you go and vote on a constitution, you should leave everything else behind at home.”