Steve Matthews is an economic policy reporter for Bloomberg, based in Atlanta. He has written a great deal lately about the nation’s current economic recovery and where it’s headed. In Depth met with Steve to discuss the economic trends he’s observed and his methods of reporting them.
You recently wrote a story about how some states have been slower than others to recover from the economic downturn. Is there any pattern to the successes and failures of different states
A: When I started work on the story, I knew some of the states that were at the center of housing bust — Nevada, Florida, Georgia and Arizona — suffered more than others and had yet to fully recover. And the data we gathered, with Alex Tanzi leading the effort, really supported that. And some energy-dependent states — North Dakota stands out, but there are others – have had a great run the past few years. What was surprising is how many other states were doing poorly for a variety of reasons. New Jersey has struggled with casino closings in Atlantic City and pharmaceutical industry layoffs. New Mexico has been hurt by government spending cutbacks. I could go on.
Subjects like job loss and economic recovery can be sensitive topics, especially for the people living them. How do you balance telling a story with data with getting the personal angle from the people affected?
I want to be sure that a story holds up both, as I talk to people who are involved in the subject and with hard data. I cover the regional Fed banks and travel a lot for the job, and make an effort to talk to people wherever I go — taxi drivers, hotel clerks, local folks who attend the Fed speeches, economists and others. I am very interested in regional economics and often will come up with an idea as I talk to local folks. While job loss is definitely a sensitive subject, I have interviewed dozens of unemployed people — and lots of underemployed folks too — and am always struck by how determined and optimistic they are.
Where do you see the economy headed in the next couple of years?
I have no good reason to disagree with the Bloomberg consensus of economists who are forecasting 3 percent growth over the next 18 months, though that is certainly much faster than the U.S. has been growing. Longer-term, there is a fascinating debate over whether growth is likely to stall out altogether, with Northwestern University’s Robert Gordon, for one, arguing that an aging population and lack of innovation will bring expansion to close to a halt. Whether you agree with Gordon or not, he’s raising really provocative ideas that deserve more discussion.