Early Returns

Death Spirals and the Making of a Presidency

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Roselyn Hsueh at the Monkey Cage on what happens now to U.S. trade with China

2. Also at the Monkey Cage: Andrew Rudalevige on constructing the Donald Trump administration.

3. Jonathan Cohn at the Huffington Post on the latest Obamacare numbers: The much-predicted (by Obamacare critics) death spiral still hasn't shown up. Could it still? Absolutely; we don't know whether the exchanges are stable or not. But so far, no sign of it. Of course, if repeal really passes, all bets are off.

4. Brian Beutler at the New Republic has an excellent explanation of all the cracks in the Obamacare repeal wall that are surfacing. Very helpful. Just remember: Obamacare repeal may turn out to be a flop, and the best-case scenario for the Affordable Care Act is that it remains in place but normal health-care politics returns and with Republican majorities in the House and Senate and Trump in the White House. That's still worse for what liberals want -- perhaps quite a bit worse than where things sit now. 

5. Alyssa Rosenberg on artists as political actors

6. And the columnists of Bloomberg View (myself included) gather to say goodbye to Barack Obama

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