Trends, Vote Splits, Intelligence and Fear

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
Read More.
a | A

1. Julia Azari at Vox on research by women that helped make sense of the 2016 elections

2. Josep M. Colomer at the Monkey Cage on the Electoral College. There's some interesting history here, but the two key paragraphs are in which he explains that we cannot predict what would have happened under different rules. 

3. Also at the Monkey Cage: Kim Yi Dionne on corruption in Africa.

4. Good one from FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten about long-term Electoral College trends. Conclusion: The total vote/Electoral College vote split probably wasn't specific to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but it's too soon to know whether Republicans now have a real Electoral College advantage. That sounds right to me. 

5. Spencer Ackerman on worries within the intelligence community about Trump.

6. Avik Roy makes the case for "repeal and delay." I'm not convinced, but I've linked to enough items knocking repeal and delay and written one myself, so I'm certainly going to encourage everyone to consider the argument for it ...

7. ... while Philip Klein warns Republicans not to accept "repeal in name only." 

8. My Bloomberg View colleague Justin Fox on the backgrounds of National Economic Counsel chairs

9. And Kevin Drum has a wild prediction about terrorism

Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net