Early Returns

What to Watch For and Worry About on Election Day

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. It's Election Day! Feeling patriotic yet? Here's my big advice: After you check the forecast sites one last time, just wait for the polls to close (and don't forget to cast your own ballot). Avoid leaked exit polls. Even if they aren't bogus (fraudulent ones have circulated during the last few cycles), early exit polls aren't designed to predict winners, as Mark Blumenthal and Ariel Edwards-Levy explained a while ago. There's also something new this year, with VoteCastr planning to make projections throughout the day based on turnout in some precincts. See Nate Cohn at the Upshot for the reasons that the effort, while interesting, isn't yet something anyone should trust. Given that, here are plenty of other things to distract you during the day.

2. Seth Masket at Mischiefs of Faction on Donald Trump's late spending on TV ads

3. Dan Drezner points out that economic populism doesn't match the current economic situation very well. 

4. At the Los Angeles Times, what election law maven Rick Hasen worries about on Election Day. 

5. Drew Linzer makes his final election projection at Daily Kos. 

6. Molly Reynolds at Brookings on what may matter in Senate elections this year. 

7. Also at Brookings: Lilly Goren on the election in Wisconsin

8. A bunch of political scientists caution against Trump. Greg Sargent at the Plum Line has the details. 

9. My View colleague Tyler Cowen on information and the 2016 campaign

10. Alex Massie gives an overseas view of the U.S. election.

11. While Stuart Stevens at the Daily Beast gives a good #NeverTrump election wrap.

12. Zachary Crockett at Vox on the San Francisco ballot measure to lower the voting age to 16

13. My View colleague Justin Fox looks for and finds U.S. manufacturing.

14. And Matt Glassman's advice for how to survive Election Day. I'll be on Twitter once the polls close (and maybe even earlier), so find me there. And enjoy voting!

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net

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