Polls, Ballot Counting and the Post-Election World

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Andrew Gelman explains how small the differences among the polling-based forecasters is.  

2. Julia Azari at Mischiefs of Faction on legitimate opposition and why the election of 1800 wasn't exactly what we think it was.

3. Brendan Nyhan at the Upshot on the efficacy of fact-checking.

4. Matthew Dickinson on New Hampshire and why it does, and doesn't, matter.

5. Edward B. Foley and Charles Stewart III at the Washington Post on provisional ballots and why the vote count may take longer now than it used to. 

6. Dave Hopkins predicts that U.S. politics will likely get even more depressing after the election. This is plausible, but not certain. Politicians will have some ability with their choices to influence which of several paths we go down.

7. Alvin Chang at Vox on the decline of swing voters.  

8. David Wasserman at FiveThirtyEight on how House Republicans and House Democrats differ by demographic groups. 

9. And Heather Hurlburt on post-election violence.

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