Masters in Business

Martin Barnes and a Level Forecasting Field

The Fed's error-prone economic forecasts level the playing field for other forecasters.

This week on Masters in Business I sit down with an old fishing buddy -- Martin Barnes, chief economist of BCA Research.

Barnes discusses how a global client base of sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, pension funds and central banks demands actionable intelligence, whether for an immediate trade or to craft a strategy measured in decades. We also discussed the errors in the Federal Reserve’s forecasting record, and how it levels the playing field for all economic analysts. Barnes, who has worked at BCA for 30 years, explains why the Fed’s models -- indeed, all econometric models based upon the past -- can lead us astray. He also notes that the Fed’s effort to promote transparency has swung too far and that the central bank should act more and talk less.

You can hear the full interview, including our podcast extras, at iTunes, Soundcloud and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts can be found at iTunesSoundcloud and Bloomberg.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Barry Ritholtz at britholtz3@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net

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