Early Returns

Third Parties, Tuned-Out Voters and Prediction Models

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Useful item from Matthew Dickinson comparing polls-based predictions with "fundamentals" models of presidential elections. 

2. Dan Drezner explained (before the trip) why Donald Trump was going to Mexico

3. Matthew Dean Hindman and Bernard Tamas at the Monkey Cage on third parties

4. Also at the Monkey Cage, Karthick Ramakrishnan, Jennifer Merolla and Chris Haynes on Trump and U.S. attitudes toward deportation.

5. Kevin Drum on why people (other than white men) aren't inclined to even give Republicans a listen

6. And my View colleague Barry Ritholtz has good news for taxpayers about banking.

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