Strategies, Shake-Ups and Statistics

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Drew Linzer over at the Daily Kos has presidential and Senate election forecasts up. Of the four stats-using models the Upshot is tracking, I might say I trust Linzer’s the most -- but given that they range right now from giving Hillary Clinton an 87 percent chance to an 89 percent chance, it’s not really necessary to choose between them at this point.

2. Seth Masket at FiveThirtyEight on the effect of the presidential race on the House and on state legislatures.

3. Dinorah Azpuru at the Monkey Cage on Donald Trump’s law-and-order campaign and Latin American authoritarians.   

4. At the National Review, Jim Geraghty on what’s going wrong for Trump.

5. Ed Kilgore on Kellyanne Conway.

6. Matt Yglesias on Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy.

7. At Bloomberg Politics, Sasha Issenberg looks at Clinton’s campaign strategy.

8. Greg Sargent on the Trump campaign shake-up and where that leaves him. 

9. And here at Bloomberg View, Justin Fox has a nice item comparing current partisan polarization to the battle over slavery in the 1850s. He asks what we’re battling about now, which is a great question. The answer certainly isn’t a policy, as it was then. Nor is it an ideology, as far as I can tell. It’s partisanship, pure and simple. It’s not quite the way that sports team loyalty works, but it’s not entirely unlike that, either.

Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Jonathan Bernstein at

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Brooke Sample at

    Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.