2016 Elections

What the Polls Are Missing About Trump

Surveys that show he is losing involve a lot of data and guesswork.

The winds are always shifting.

Photo: NOAA via Getty Images

Donald Trump “needs a miracle” to win, says Stuart Rothenberg, an old-style political analyst. On the other hand, political scientist Drew Linzer estimates Trump’s odds at about 1 in 4, or as he puts it: “Flip a coin twice: if you get two heads, that’s President Trump.” Nate Silver’s “polls-plus” model has Trump with a 25 percent chance, too.

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