One Reason to Love 2016
Investors Like Election Years, No Matter Who Wins
If you're seeking a quick buck, a bet on the Republican candidate will probably pay off, while buy-and-hold folks tend to do better when the Democrat wins, according to a Bloomberg analysis. But either way, Matthew A. Winkler says, the stock market almost always goes up when Americans select a president. Call it confidence in democracy.
Economists Turn a Blind Eye to Historical Data
To get the right view of post-recession recoveries, you have to look at debt-induced crises. Barry Ritholtz considers why experts ignore them -- and what they're missing.
Reconciling the Contradictions of U.S. GDP Data
Two striking and persistent divergences in the U.S. economy played out yet again in the second quarter of this year: between corporate and household behavior, and between economic and financial risk-taking. Mohamed A. El Erian explains how to make sense of it all.
Here's the Economist Whose Ideas Guide Trump
If you want to understand the Republican candidate's views on China, Peter Navarro is the thinker to read. Tyler Cowen offers an introduction to one of the most versatile and productive American economists of the last few decades. (Relatedly, Paula Dwyer notes that Trump's Social Security plan depends on a few magic ingredients, including tax cuts, unrealistically high GDP growth -- and a fresh wave of immigrants.)
How Public Bigotry Creeps Into Private Lives
American political campaigns have always been rancorous, but even jaded observers have been shocked by this year's insulting and even hateful rhetoric. Margaret Carlson says the Republican's nominee's attacks on the grieving parents of a war hero should be disqualifying, while Francis Wilkinson warns that a nasty strain of politics can subtly poison our most intimate thoughts and relationships.
- Why is the stock market so high? Ask the bond market (NYT)
- Investor cage match: gold bugs vs. equity bulls (Pension Partners)
- Are we at risk of an inverted yield curve? (A Wealth of Common Sense)
(Read Barry Ritholtz's full daily news roundup.)
- Uber wins by losing in China
- Currency risk poses a hurdle for Treasuries
- Breakthrough drugs don't always break through
(Read more from BV's sister site for fast business commentary.)
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