Early Returns

Obama's Polls, White Anger and Cleveland Plots

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Michael Tesler has evidence that Barack Obama’s approval surge is related to the unpopularity of the presidential candidates. I’m still skeptical of this explanation, but it's good to see an empirical argument at least.

2. Good catch from my View colleague Francis Wilkinson on reactions to speeches in Dallas by George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

3. Jonathan Chait on white backlash. He asks why some conservatives falsely believe Barack Obama talks endlessly about certain injustices. I know the answer: It’s the conservative information-feedback loop. If you tune in to media sources that constantly repeat something Obama has said, then you can easily form the mistaken view that the president never shuts up about it.

4. Ed O’Keefe at the Washington Post looks at some of the more likely and more obscure scenarios for Cleveland.

5. HuffPost’s Sam Stein and Elise Foley do some reporting and find that there’s even less of a Trump campaign than it appears.

6. Nate Silver explains how to react to new polls as the campaign goes on.

7. Erik Wemple reports on a story that sure looks bad for CNN.

8. I missed this, but it’s still worth it: at the New West, Jacqueline S. Gehring on European football and European diversity.

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