The 2.8 Million Non-Voters Who Delivered Brexit

Polls and forecasts failed to predict that so many unlikely voters would weigh in for 'leave.'

Numbers went up.

Photographer: Ian Forsyth

The U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union came as a surprise to many. It has reignited the debate about the accuracy of polls and forecasts (including mine), and the merits of online versus phone polling. Much of that debate has missed what an analysis of the voting now shows is the central polling error and reason for Brexit: a large cohort of new voters.

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