Brexit's Losers and Trump's 'Scampaign'

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Julia Gray, Christian Jensen and Jonathan Slapin at the Monkey Cage on Brexit: negotiating the terms, and identifying the losers.

2. Everything Jonathan Ladd says about Donald Trump, the Republican Party and the news media is exactly correct. It is worth noting, however, that media coverage of Trump during the nomination contest did not follow traditional media norms, leaving at least the possibility the same will be true in the general election. However, that was mainly about the quantity of coverage, and the situation isn’t quite the same this fall as it was back in the spring. At Mischiefs of Faction.

3. Dave Hopkins on Trump and the media, a long-term story.

4. Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics is correct that there’s a danger of groupthink among pundits and analysts who pretty much all dislike Trump and therefore might fail to accurately assess his chances of winning in November. Fair point.

5. Plum Line’s Greg Sargent points out the extremely dubious evidence that Trump will inevitably be helped by terror attacks. I’d settle for the idea that voter reaction is unpredictable. But Sargent could well be correct -- which would be consistent with my argument that (sort of) peace and (more or less) prosperity has helped Trump because people are more likely to support an unserious candidate when they take threats to perceived good times less seriously.

6. Great reporting by the Washington Post’s David A. Fahrenthold on Trump’s charitable donations. Yes, it seems quite likely Trump has systematically falsely claimed to have given generously. Of course, this could be cleared up by looking at Trump’s tax returns.

7. Sarah Posner on how the Supreme Court’s abortion decision will affect evangelicals during this election cycle.

8. Jonathan Chait on the real differences between Bernie Sanders and the Obama/Clinton Democratic Party when it comes to the economy.

9. Jamelle Bouie at Slate on where Elizabeth Warren should be.

10. Alex Massie on Brexit and the future of Britain.

11. And the New Republic’s Jeet Heer on Trump’s “scampaign.” Plausible! Although it’s also plausible that Trump sincerely believes running without a campaign is the best way to the presidency.

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