Dumping Trump and Convention Coups

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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1. The Upshot’s Lynn Vavreck looks back at advertising during the primaries. Lots of good stuff here.

2. Gabriel Sanchez and Alan I. Abramowitz at the Monkey Cage argue that the polls may understate Hillary Clinton’s lead. Plausible, but be very careful about this sort of thing. It’s quite normal to have several perfectly possible reasons why the polls might be tilted one way or another, and it’s very easy to believe only those possibilities that suggest good news for the candidate one supports.

3. I fully agree with Andrew Gelman on the “Fox effect.” Also at the Monkey Cage.

4. Good Dan Drezner item on the “establishment.”  

5. David Wasserman at FiveThirtyEight on the outside chance the Democrats can win a House majority this year.

6. Bryce Covert on how presidents affect (and don’t affect) the economy.

7. David Weigel at the Washington Post on “why the ‘convention coup’ against Trump is not completely insane.” That’s the correct view: It’s not very likely, but it’s an entirely realistic scenario. Pending more information on delegate loyalties, at least; we just don’t know so far how many delegates are Trump-selected and Trump-loyal. If the Donald Trump campaign did what they should have done, especially after the other candidates dropped out, Trump is safe -- but does anyone believe the Trump campaign can be assumed to have been minimally competent?

8. Jonathan Chait and Ed Kilgore debate whether the Republicans should try to free the delegates and dump Trump. I’m tentatively on Chait’s side here, but it’s certainly not an easy question.

9. Conor Friedersdorf on what talk radio is teaching Republican voters now.

10. And Olivia Nuzzi has a must-read profile of Trump operative Hope Hicks.

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To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net