Hey, Pundits, Take a Vacation Already

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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1. Worried (or thrilled) that Democrats are losing a chance to define Donald Trump early because Bernie Sanders is still running against Hillary Clinton? As John Sides says at the Monkey Cage, there’s very little evidence that early attack ads did anything against Mitt Romney in 2012.

2. Dan Drezner on why pundits should take a vacation this month.

3. Julia Azari and William Adler at FiveThirtyEight on the veepstakes.

4. Sean Trende makes the case that Trump has a chance of winning.

5. We’re getting a little backlash against the “Trump has a chance” crowd, however. Paul Krugman notes that the angry-electorate theory doesn’t seem to hold up.

6. Matt Yglesias is good on the myth of Teflon Trump (something I’ve been tweeting about a bunch lately).

7. And I really agree with Greg Sargent: There’s no reason to believe Trump is magic.

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To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net