Early Returns

Why Trump Won, and Why He Won't

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Diana Z. O'Brien and Catherine Reyes-Housholder at the Monkey Cage look at Hillary Clinton’s promise of putting women in half her cabinet positions.

2. Scott Lemieux reminds us that Donald Trump isn’t likely to win in November. Usefully lays out several things that are either untrue or minor factors at best. The best pro-Trump case is easy, however: If 2016 really is a lean-Republican election with generic candidates, then perhaps Trump only underperforms by a bit if he can manage to unify his party, and he squeaks in narrowly. If I had to guess today, I’d say Trump badly underperforms as a generic Republican, but there’s really no precedent, so it’s hard to be confident about that.

3. Matthew Dickinson on why Trump won the nomination. I can’t say I agree -- but as always, I strongly recommend reading Dickinson, a very smart political scientist who has a very different outlook on parties and nomination politics than I do.

4. Seth Masket looks at which top Republicans are backing Trump.

5. Excellent discussion from Vox’s Dylan Matthews on current research about responsiveness to the rich, the middle class and the poor in U.S. politics. He’s correct in his final comments, too, that representation is a lot more complicated than simply comparing outcomes to public opinion surveys.

6. Plum Line’s Greg Sargent tries to sort out exactly what Donald Trump is saying on the minimum wage and taxes.

7. And Kevin Drum keeps writing about angry (or not angry) voters, and I’m going to keep linking to him, because I think he’s correct. As he says, it’s not that no one is angry, or even that no one is angry about the economy -- it’s just that there’s not a lot of reason to believe more people are more angry about the economy than they were during other elections.

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