Early Returns

The Real Threat Facing the Republican Party

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. John Sides at the Monkey Cage provides more evidence against the notion that the 2016 elections are being driven by voter anger, especially about the economy. That doesn’t prove my assertion that Trumpism is at least partially a consequence of (more or less) good times, but at least it’s consistent with what I’ve been saying.

2. Matt Yglesias is correct: The big danger to Republicans is that Latino voters will become overwhelmingly Democratic for generations, just as black voters did.

3. Sarah Kliff at Vox on what’s happening in the Obamacare exchanges. Short version: This is what competition looks like.

4. Kevin Drum reminds us that Donald Trump didn’t actually oppose the Iraq War in advance -- and chides reporters who fall for Trump’s false claim.

5. My Bloomberg View colleague Francis Wilkinson on the rout of social conservatives in the 2016 elections.

6. And Ed Kilgore on a potential Bernie Sanders/Hillary Clinton fight over the Democratic platform. I think the main thing confusing everyone here is that somehow much of the media has missed the basic fact that Clinton is winning the nomination in a blowout. It isn’t close, and it hasn’t been close. That said: The reason the winner gives concessions to the loser(s) is because the winner has a higher stake in party unity, because the winner wants to be president. On the other hand, the winner has the votes, so Clinton isn't going to concede anything that really matters to those who supported her. 

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