Politicians' Promises and #NeverTrump's Evolution

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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1. Yup, politicians usually attempt to keep their promises, and they often succeed. Timothy Hill at FiveThirtyEight looks at the research. (My old item on this is here.)

2. Andrew Rudalevige at the Monkey Cage on the Supreme Court arguments over President Obama’s immigration policy.

3. Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics looks at how the remaining Republican primaries will play out. No surprises -- he agrees with others that Indiana and California are the big question marks -- but always good to hear from another smart and well-informed analyst.

4. Jessica Taylor at NPR examines what might happen at a contested convention -- including a detailed look at the rules for binding delegates in every state.

5. Jonathan Chait is not impressed with John Kasich’s balanced-budget “plan.”

6. Kevin Drum doubts whether #NeverTrump supporters will stick with their pledge. Fair enough, I guess, but in my view, those organizing against Trump deserve appreciation, not ridicule, even if they eventually wind up retreating if Trump is nominated. At least, for those who believe Trump is unusually unsuited for the Oval Office. The truth is that the logic of a two-party, first-past-the-post system makes for impossible choices when one’s party nominates a terrible candidate. The time to act, then, is before the nomination is settled, and the #NeverTrump gang, whatever they do down the road, at least isn't guilty of just letting it happen.

7. Plenty of detail about 2016 Senate elections from Ed Kilgore ...

8. ... while Perry Bacon Jr. takes a hard look at House elections

9. And Alyssa Rosenberg on Harriet Tubman in popular culture.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net