Philip Tetlock's Quest for Better Forecasting

Barry Ritholtz is a Bloomberg View columnist. He founded Ritholtz Wealth Management and was chief executive and director of equity research at FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He blogs at the Big Picture and is the author of “Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy.”
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In our second Masters in Business podcast this week, we speak with Philip Tetlock, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is on the faculty of both the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.

Tetlock's specialty is researching how people make decisions and forecasts. In our conversation, he describes quantifying the track records of forecasters and why the experts are no better than the general public at predicting events. Tetlock has written several books and most recently was co-author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," which the Economist named to its list of the Best Books of 2015. He also is the co-principal investigator of the Good Judgment project, a multiyear study on improving the accuracy forecasting about high-stakes, real-world events.

You can stream the full podcast below, or download it on Apple iTunesBloomberg, or SoundCloud. All of our earlier podcasts are at iTunesSoundcloud and Bloomberg.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Barry Ritholtz at britholtz3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net