Early Returns

Trump, Cruz and Rubio: Place Your Bets

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Dave Hopkins compares Donald Trump’s long-term effects to Ross Perot’s. Sounds correct. Unless Trump becomes president (no, I don’t think that’s going to happen).

2. Kalev Leetaru at the Monkey Cage has the data on how successful Trump’s latest bid to attract attention has been. 

3. Excellent item from NBC’s Perry Bacon Jr. about Republican party actors and Marco Rubio.

4. A good David Brooks item on Ted Cruz and where he fits in the Republican party. Again, anyone who tells you Ted Cruz is an “outsider” is getting it wrong or selling something.

5. If Trump leads conservatives to appreciate the skills politicians have, that would be an achievement. Here’s the Washington Examiner’s Philip Klein with a critique of moving from business to politics.

6. Plum Line’s Greg Sargent updates what’s happening with Medicaid expansion in Kentucky and Louisiana.

7. Don't believe anyone in the next few months who tells you that the Republican’s “Rule 40” is terribly important. David Byler at RealClearPolitics explains.

8. A polling overview by Kristen Soltis Anderson discusses sources of error in polls and whether they are predictive. She talks about polls (if they’re done correctly) as providing “a current snapshot in time.” I think of the results as reflecting what everyone in the nation (or state or wherever) would say if asked this same question, in the same way, right now.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

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    Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

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    Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net

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