Early Returns

Just Call Him Liberal Donald Trump

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Michael Tesler at the Monkey Cage looks at the correlation between disliking Muslims and disliking Barack Obama and supporting Donald Trump.

2. See also Lynn Vavreck at the Upshot on disliking Muslims and supporting Trump.

3. Dave Hopkins notes Republicans framing Trump’s anti-Muslim politicking as deviations from conservative orthodoxy. Why don't his opponents don’t refer to him constantly as LiberalDonaldTrump?

4. Excellent rundown of where we are in the budget process from the Fix’s Amber Phillips and an array of guest experts. Bottom line: A shutdown is unlikely, and a long-term shutdown (more than a few days) is unlikely. But until then, there are still possibilities for the whole thing to go sour.  

5. Dan McLaughlin at RedState goes deep on the Republican calendar and on which presidential candidate it will help if a close race develops.

6. Reihan Salam at National Review on Trump and the Muslim world.

7. FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten looks at what Trump would do as an independent candidate.

8. Kevin Drum on the cable news networks' love of Trump.

9. And don’t miss my View colleague Zara Kessler’s wonderful charts about millennials. One to bookmark.

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