Early Returns

History Has Its Eyes on 2016

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. Yes, polling is good for democracy. Arthur Lupia makes the case in the New York Times.

2. Sandra Gonzalez-Bailon at the Monkey Cage on the role of social media in social movements.

3. In Pacific Standard, Seth Masket calls the 2016 general election for president a toss-up -- and looks at factors helping each party.

4. Scott Lemieux at The Week writes against “dealbreakers.” He’s addressing liberals, but the same logic applies for conservatives.

5. Dave Hopkins says: Republican voters will care about Donald Trump’s lies when highly visible Republicans call them lies.

6. Julia Azari at Mischiefs of Faction considers Trump in the context of past party splits. The important point: Trump is running from outside the Republican Party, unlike past insurgents.

7. Also looking into history, my View colleague Francis Wilkinson sees Trump as closest to Joe McCarthy. He makes a strong argument, but I’m not convinced; to me, Ted Cruz is more of a McCarthy, while Trump matches up better with Ross Perot. In Wilkinson’s favor, however: McCarthy pretty much stumbled into anti-Communism, and reportedly Trump also stumbled accidentally into immigrant-bashing.

8. In the New York Times, Jennifer Schuessler looks at Woodrow Wilson’s record.

9. And Dan Drezner asks critics of universities to get their facts straight.

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    To contact the author of this story:
    Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

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