The Expert Who Gives Trump a Chance

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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1. At the Monkey Cage, Gwyneth McClendon and Rachel Beatty Riedl discuss research on what Christian churches are doing in Africa.

2. I still don’t think Donald Trump has any realistic chance of being nominated, but Ezra Klein talks to one political scientist, Alan Abramowitz, who gives Trump a solid chance. It's worth hearing his case.

3. Kevin Drum’s “Three Laws of Political Speech” are pretty good, as long as we take the caveats seriously.

4. At the Upshot, Nate Cohn looks at the rise of untraditional polling methods. It's a useful piece for later in the political cycle, but for now here's the key point: Donald Trump does much worse in live-interview telephone polling of participants than in online formats. We don't know why, so we don’t know whether one or the other is correct, or whether the best estimate simply comes from averaging all polls.

5. And at RealClearPolitics, David Byler considers the evidence on why the polls don’t predict results even at this point. We’re getting closer, however.

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To contact the author of this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net