Early Returns

Scary But Possible: A December Shutdown

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

1. At the Monkey Cage, Sarah Binder explains the budget deal and why we should expect more of the same in the future.

2. Molly Reynolds at the Brookings Institution makes additional good points about the deal and what it says about Congress. She’s correct that eliminating the big fights about the budget for now doesn’t eliminate the possibility of a shutdown showdown in December.

3. Matthew Dickenson on Donald Trump’s polling -- and whether political scientists have got him wrong.

4. Norm Ornstein continues to suspect it’s different this time in the presidential nomination race. I still don’t think so, but you should read him. He may be correct.

5. Wonkblog’s Emily Badger reports on findings that segregated cities spend less on public goods -- everything from parks to sewer systems.

6. Good (pre-debate) analysis by the Upshot's Nate Cohn of the Republican nomination fight from a party perspective.

7. Also pre-debate, Ross Douthat considers Ted Cruz’s chances of being the nominee.

8. Interesting Nate Silver item on the dysfunctional (or is it?) Republican Party. The question may not be whether Republicans are in “disarray.” As I see it, their dysfunction matters more in terms of governing than in elections (or at least general election results), where broader conditions dominate.

9. And Michael Weinreb at Rolling Stone on baseball-reference.com

Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net

    Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.