A record of uncanny election accuracy.

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Nate Silver on Election Forecasting

Barry Ritholtz is a Bloomberg View columnist. He founded Ritholtz Wealth Management and was chief executive and director of equity research at FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He blogs at the Big Picture and is the author of “Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy.”
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This week on our Masters in Business radio podcast, we speak with Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Silver first gained public attention with his forecasts of political elections. Eschewing the anecdote-driven approach of the mainstream media, Silver takes a statistical average of all surveys and polls, adjusting for known tendencies and biases. The result has been a stunningly accurate run of predictions. Be sure to listen to the segment on the electoral process and his insights into Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. Silver received his bachelors in economics in 2000 from the University of Chicago, and is the author of "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t."

The full podcast is available on iTunesSoundCloud and on Bloomberg.  Earlier podcasts can be found on iTunes and at BloombergView.com

Next week, we speak with Paul McCulley, former chief economist at Pacific Investment Management Co.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author on this story:
Barry L Ritholtz at britholtz3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor on this story:
James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net