What Happens If Republicans Lose?

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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1. Seth Masket at Mischiefs of Faction argues strongly that internal divisions in the Republican Party over the nomination won’t matter in November 2016. Exactly right. It's why I say that all partisans will love their candidate, eventually.

2. Pablo Barberá at the Monkey Cage estimates presidential candidate ideology from their Twitter followers. We’re getting a bunch of these ingenious schemes for estimating ideology, and as with some others this one looks fascinating and useful … as long as we don’t assume too much about it. On this particular measure, the big caution is that (to the extent it is accurate) it’s going to measure perceptions of ideology, not candidate behavior -- as opposed, say, to analysis of Congressional voting records. That’s not a bad thing at all. It’s just important to be clear of what’s been estimated, and to remember that we can’t really know how accurate the estimates are.

3. Also at the Monkey Cage, Bernd Beber, Michael Gilligan, Jenny Guardado and Sabrina Karim on “U.N. peacekeeping and transactional sex.”

4. Jamelle Bouie on what happens to the Republicans if they lose the presidency next year. There’s evidence to support the idea that parties moderate after losing the White House more than twice; note, however, that Republican successes at all other levels may work against that. Hard to predict, in my view.

5. John Boehner knows what he’s doing. Members of the Republican conference can cast protest votes against him without problem, but he’s not going to jeopardize procedural control of the House. Daniel Newhauser reports at National Journal.

6. And “if you are a Republican, it ought to be especially worrisome to you.” A Brad DeLong screed.

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To contact the author on this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor on this story:
Cameron Abadi at cabadi2@bloomberg.net