The Pragmatic Case Against Jeb Bush

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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1. Melissa R. Michelson at The New West on the San Antonio mayoral election, which was indeed an interesting contest. That said: regular readers will know that one factor in depressed turnout could have been the onslaught of election days so far this year (in my precinct, four so far, and others have had more).

2. At the Monkey Cage, Deborah Boucoyannis on Magna Carta.

3. Good Seth Masket item at Pacific Standard on parties and the Koch brothers' fight with the Republican National Committee.

4. Here at View, Peter Orszag hits Congress for moving against health care cost containment.

5. Dan Larison on Barack Obama and Islamic State. I think it’s a bit unfair to say that Obama created, or even significantly increased, pressure to “destroy” the terrorist organization by claiming that as a goal. As for whether he’ll eventually escalate intervention to match his rhetoric … we’ll see.

6. At Slate, Reihan Salam with the pragmatic case against Jeb Bush. I think he’s overestimating Bush’s chances of winning the nomination and underestimating Bush’s chances in the general election if he gets that far … but then again, I do agree that Republicans would be taking a risk by nominating him. It’s just very difficult to assess how large the risk is. No real comparable case, ever.

7. I like the way Aaron Blake at the Fix covered the latest national Republican nomination poll. Cute.

8. David Leonhardt at the Upshot looks at the nomination race using prediction markets. I’m not a huge fan of prediction markets, but they definitely have some information that can be extracted.

9. Stan Collender looks at the fading chances of tax reform. I think that’s correct, but with a caveat: If Republicans get unified government in 2017, there’s a pretty good chance that they’ll label the subsequent tax cuts as “tax reform.”

10. And Charles Gaba on workarounds for Obamacare subsidies if the Court rules with the challengers.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg View's editorial board or Bloomberg LP, its owners and investors.

To contact the author on this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor on this story:
Cameron Abadi at cabadi2@bloomberg.net