Chris Christie's Coming Polling Surge

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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1. At the Upshot, Brendan Nyhan on trade and public opinion.

2. Andrew Rudalevige on Barack Obama, immigration, and the 5th Circuit -- and what it says about how U.S. politics works.

3. Dan Drezner looks at the FIFA scandal as U.S. foreign policy.

4. Tim Carney at the Washington Examiner makes the case for why we should expect a Chris Christie surge. Plausible! Although one could also make that case for at least half a dozen of the others.

5. Here at View, Francis Wilkinson on Republicans and the Dreamers.

6. Good one from NBC’s Perry Bacon Jr. on Hillary Clinton and the press.

7. Marsha Barrett at Politico tries to correct the myth about Nelson and Happy Rockefeller.

8. RCP’s David Byler explores Hillary Clinton and the invisible primary. Good, although I thinkhe really underestimates her grip on the nomination – and overestimates Clinton’s position back in 2008, when she was the early leader in endorsements but hardly had a dominant position.

9. And I didn’t do an item on Rick Santorum, who formally announced his candidacy yesterday. I don’t have much to add to what I said last year: he’s a plausible nominee, but there’s no particular reason to believe he’ll achieve much and plenty of reason to be skeptical. The test I’ve been applying lately has been what would happen if a candidate lucks into (or earns) a polling surge. If it happened to Santorum? Well, maybe he consolidates the Christian conservative vote. Maybe that’s enough to win in Iowa, and this time around party actors who dismissed him after Iowa in 2012 start to believe in him.

Likely? No. In particular, I’d probably put Santorum well into the bottom half of the entire field in his chances of actually getting a polling surge. Meanwhile, check out Jamie Fuller over at New York magazine on Santorum and Mike Huckabee according to the media.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg View's editorial board or Bloomberg LP, its owners and investors.

To contact the author on this story:
Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor on this story:
Cameron Abadi at cabadi2@bloomberg.net