Read Stuff, You Should: Obama's Role

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

Happy Birthday to Sam Lloyd, 51.

Right to the good stuff:

1. Charli Carpenter at Duck of Minerva looks at what casualty statistics from war tell us and don’t.

2. Ben Highton looks back at how the Monkey Cage (and competing) forecast models did on House races.

3. At Mischiefs of Faction, Richard Skinner wraps up a “surprising unsurprising election” and solves the case: President Barack Obama's approval rating mattered most.

4. I agree with the Upshot’s Nate Cohn: Turnout in 2016 is likely to resemble 2012 in terms of diversity. Those who believe that turnout was an Obama phenomenon are probably wrong. One important point, however: Young people will return to the polls in 2016, but that doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily vote for Democrats.

5. At Slate, an excellent Jamelle Bouie profile of South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and discussion of representation and black politicians.

6. Jason Linkins at HuffPost on No Labels.

7. And though it doesn’t quite match my writing about presidential candidates, The Fix’s Jaime Fuller’s take on the rituals of running and not running is too fun to pass up. By the way, anyone who takes the “Paul Ryan is planning to leave politics” nonsense seriously needs to be laughed out of the room, and National Journal should be embarrassed for printing it.

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