Forecasting Is Risky, Especially About the Future

 People who made forecasts for rapid inflation based on Fed policies may have been wrong, but remember that forecasting is always chancy.
It isn't supposed to be guesswork.

A while ago, I wrote about the people who warned in 2010 that quantitative easing would result in inflation, but who didn't seem to change their beliefs very much after inflation failed to materialize. Others wrote about the same phenomenon. Of all the defenses offered by the 2010 inflationistas for the constancy of their views, the most subtle and interesting is the claim that predicting an event is different than predicting the risk of an event. Highly successful finance magnate Cliff Asness, writing at RealClearMarkets, makes this defense:

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