Forecasting Is Risky, Especially About the Future
A while ago, I wrote about the people who warned in 2010 that quantitative easing would result in inflation, but who didn't seem to change their beliefs very much after inflation failed to materialize. Others wrote about the same phenomenon. Of all the defenses offered by the 2010 inflationistas for the constancy of their views, the most subtle and interesting is the claim that predicting an event is different than predicting the risk of an event. Highly successful finance magnate Cliff Asness, writing at RealClearMarkets, makes this defense:
To continue reading this article you must be a Bloomberg Professional Service Subscriber.
If you believe that you may have received this message in error please let us know.
- Melania Trump Has a Bully-in-Chief Problem
- Conservatives and the Rotten Smell of States' Rights
- London's Uber Ban Is a Big Brexit Mistake
- Trump Slams the Brakes on Self-Driving Cars
- Serving Ice Cream Isn't a Cultural Exchange
- Trump Has Created Leverage Against Iran. Now He Needs a Closer.
- A Central Bank Puzzle for Our Era: What Gives?