Read Stuff, You Should: What's Changing Budget Forecasts?

Jonathan Bernstein's morning links.

Happy Birthday to Gina Bellman, 48. I never really watched "Leverage," but I liked "Coupling," and she was excellent in that.

The good stuff:

1. "There is no instance of a president pressing and winning a domestic program after a second midterm ... But that doesn't mean there has been no legislative action at all." David Mayhew and Matthew I. Bettinger look at the seventh and eighth years of presidencies.

2. The mysterious force that is having an enormous, and very good, effect on budget forecasts, from Sarah Kliff.

3. Ross Douthat on reform conservatives and Paul Ryan.

4. Irin Carmon on birth control.

5. Byron York asks the big question on impeachment. I think he overstates the seriousness of mainstream Democrats about impeachment in 2006, before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other party leaders shut it down. Then again, it's not clear how serious anyone is this time.

6. Nice Ezra Klein item about the myth of moderate voters.

7. Michael Cohen argues that President Barack Obama's foreign policy successes have been overlooked. His strongest point, however, is that it's a mistake to assume that military force will somehow automatically achieve whatever goals one might want.

8. And Mark Berman has every chart you could possibly want for presidents and guys in horse head getups.

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