Hillary Clinton's Real Challenge

The last eight times American voters elected a new president, they chose someone who was, along a critical dimension, the antithesis of the incumbent. This suggests a real challenge for the 2016 candidates.
A study in contrasts.

Consider this hypothesis about modern presidential elections: Whenever American voters elect a new president, they choose someone who is, along a critical dimension, the antithesis of the incumbent. The Incumbent Antithesis hypothesis, as I'll call it, fits recent history, and it may be correct. If so, it suggests a real challenge for the next Democratic nominee, even if it is Hillary Clinton -- perhaps especially if it is.

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