Look Out Below, Post-Bounce Random Edition
Last week, we discussed the increasing odds of a 10 percent correction in U.S. equity markets. At the end of the week, markets had a 90/90 downside day, something that has technical significance if you are inclined in that direction. The expectations that follow a 90/90 day are for a bounce and a further retreat.
Given the deep red state of futures this morning, things seem to be playing out according to that probability.
But before panic sets in, let me throw a series of random ideas at you that might be worth considering before going home for the weekend:
-- U.S. markets are within 3 percent to 4 percent of record highs.
-- Earnings at bellwether tech firms -- Google, Facebook, even Microsoft -- have been above expectations so far.
-- Revenue at other tech firms such as Amazon and Apple is up.
-- The 10-year Treasury is yielding 2.69 percent. It was 1.435 percent in July 2012, and 3.026 percent a month ago.
-- We are not yet halfway to a 10 percent correction on the major U.S. indexes.
-- This is only the eighth time in Super Bowl history that two teams with the best records have met for the championship game.
-- No one is making money in emerging markets these days, unless they are short.
-- Apple sold a record 51 million iPhones last quarter. That is a lot of phones.
-- Mortgage applications fell as higher prices and rate gyrations have caused refinancings to approach 5-year lows.
-- Facebook is 10 years old; that's like 25 in tech years and 70 in dog years. It also is one of the 20 largest companies by market value in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
-- Although I can see why posting a comment on a blog post might be fun, I cannot for the life of me understand why anyone feels compelled to post 100 comments. Who has that sort of free time?
-- Today, Jan. 31, is Justin Timberlake and Jackie Robinson's birthday (how's that for random?).
-- Gross domestic product growth at 3.2 percent is quite respectable a mere 5 years after the biggest credit crisis in recent U.S. history.
It's Friday! Enjoy your weekend.
(Barry Ritholtz writes about finance, the economy and the business world for Bloomberg View. Follow him on Twitter@Ritholtz.)
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg View's editorial board or Bloomberg LP, its owners and investors.
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