The Consensus Hates Bonds. Should You?: Ritholtz Chart

Barry Ritholtz is a Bloomberg View columnist. He founded Ritholtz Wealth Management and was chief executive and director of equity research at FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He blogs at the Big Picture and is the author of “Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy.”
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If you want a sense of the consensus view of equities, the accompanying chart from BlackRock might provide some insight.

The top panel shows the position of the major firms. As the top row (all in green) shows, they are all bullish on global equities. (Note: This came out last week -- prior to Goldman Sachsdowngradeon U.S. equities yesterday.) The next row all in red shows a uniform dislike of fixed income.

They are not surprisingly mostly bullish on developed markets and European equities, and mostly bearish on emerging markets and Asia.

To quote Rule No. 9 from Bob Farrell, who was one of Merrill Lynch's original technical analysts, "When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen."

That's the most interesting aspect of these predictions -- the element of consensus on investments.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg View's editorial board or Bloomberg LP, its owners and investors.

To contact the author on this story:
Barry L Ritholtz at britholtz3@bloomberg.net