Why Are U.S. Stocks Influenced by Anxiety Abroad?

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Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) –- JPMorgan Funds Chief Global Strategist David Kelly and Bulltick Capital Emerging Markets Research Analyst Kathryn Rooney Vera discuss the volatility in the U.S. and emerging markets and where they see opportunity. They speak to Adam Johnson and Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Emerging markets taking center stage, argentina, indonesia, turkey, take your pick.

Why are these stocks taking their cue from anxiety a broad?

And started with how we started the year, we went in with the u.s. stock market in up a lot.

That stoppard -- stopped the upward momentum and the market got double-teamed because we had a stop on the moving forward, and it cut the legs from underneath it.

I do not change as the story of the u.s. economy, and so i do regard this as a buying opportunity.

Would you agree catherine?

Certainly within the emerging markets, there are some opportunities to be had to mow when you have had asked -- panics right -- strike.

We see turkey, brazil, mexico columbia, and you can see some opportunity eventually.

This route could -- rout could continue over the next couple of weeks, but it will ring out the fundamental stronger stories.

Mexico, korea, was that have done the right things, may the reforms, and are continually doing so.

Let's focus on mexico as an example, what has mexico done that makes it stand out for you?

You have the energy reform, mexico has already pushed through and past energy reform which will more than open up this otherwise completely unavailable to foreign investment area.

It is a growing story, and eight percent tied with the u.s. but mexico fundamentally as pushing for fiscal reform, energy reform, these reforms have a long-term impact.

For a longer term investor, you can certainly pick up some value in names that have been overly sold.

David, let me bring you back into the conversation.

Earlier this morning i had a chance to speak with the irish finance minister about michael noonan -- minister, michael noonan.

He was talking about how europe was coming back, ireland has come back, and they want to have investors again.

Have the deer really turned the corner here -- have they really turned the corner here?

Since 2013 and has all been up.

Things are getting better, but the unemployment rate is still 12%. the reason that that is an opportunity is that if europe can build momentum, it has some the dental per cyclical rebound -- potential or cyclical rebound.

There is tremendous opportunity for european stocks.

I like the euro merging markets in the long run, and europe for the short.

The euros -- us.s. has had a great run since 2009, so you think you will get more bang for your buck?

In the economy, i think there is much more room for europe to grow as fast as its normal trend without hitting invention problems -- inflation problems.

They are lower than where they are the united states can and low relative to their own local bonds.

They have more potential to grow over the next five years in terms of trend growth than the united states.

How hard of a cell is that -- sell is that?

Do they hang up the phone would you say go to europe?

It doesn't work like that, but fundamentally i love talking about stories which are unpopular.

The worst time to get into a market is what everybody says it is a good deal, and everybody feels very good about it.

People need to buy when they feel uncomfortable, that is where the opportunity is.

Looking at some of the tech earnings that we have had over the past week, facebook.

Out -- stood out on the upside, but everywhere else you look, amazon , several is that we have seen that others that we have seen, yahoo!

For instance, it all points to is the number that we see being reflected in the earnings and revenue?

I think you're seeing some disappointments, and i think a lot of that is reflected in equity markets.

The equity of the s&p has been dropping over the past couple of weeks.

Going back to the emerging markets, it is important to everybody, does not matter if you're in u.s. investing, or bonds.

It is all about whether we are not -- are or are not entering a crisis like 1997 or 1998. it all goes back to direct bottom-line earnings growth for corporations.


I want to add to that the earnings stories not that bad if you look at it altogether.

So far, through this morning and we had 71% of companies beating estimates on earnings, and 60% of companies beating on revenues, and both of those are multiyear highs.

The year-over-year gain is huge, but even if you adjust it for some pension write-offs a year ago, and some pension gains, we are still looking at about eight percent growth.

The market is down, and therefore we have to find the usual suspects, and find something to blame, actually it has not been a bad earnings season.

I want to get each of your thoughts on the fact that the fed seems to be forging ahead with the paper, without regards to the emerging markets.

The central bank of india is concerned about that, why don't you answer to that?

I think the emerging markets are going to be just fine if the fed continues with this gradual approach.

If there is not a ramped up focus, because the concern is that emerging markets will see more capital outflows, which will destabilize countries like turkey that have only 13% of their current account covered by foreign investment.

The rest is funded by debt and equity portfolio flows.

If that reverses, you cad stabilization.

If they stayed tied, i think this is a correction, and i do not think it is a downward spiral on a global scale.


I think the real problem, i think the fed should continue to taper, but i think there is a need for major developed country's intro banks -- central banks to get into currencies if this turns into much of a freefall.

That will help the whole global economy.

Thank you for joining us.

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