Uncertainty Rules Over Russia and Ukraine: Shaw

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March 18 (Bloomberg) –- Investec Securities Chief Economist Philip Shaw discusses the uncertainty surrounding Russia and Ukraine, how Russia will actually annex Crimea if it’s sovereignty isn’t recognized by the west or Kiev and China’s economy. He speaks to Anna Edwards and Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

It is almost impossible to make projections beyond the end of our nose, beyond a day, isn't it.

Have you been crunching the numbers, looking at all the scenarios?

Looking at the worst-case scenarios when it comes to the economic impact on russia and the impact on the eu?

We try to.

There is a large number of possibilities.

I don't think you want to go down the road of the worst possible scenario.

Some sort of military conflict remains a risk.

I suppose the biggest uncertainty is how russia physically and axis the crimea because clearly the referendum over the weekend is not recognized either by the west or tf -- or kiev?

Things seem to be moving quickly.

This morning we got reports from moscow that president putin is going to speak and is expected to announce the annexation of crimea as early as today.

It is difficult to keep up with these kinds of events.

It is.

In the meantime, how does president putin play at?

He could use a diplomatic channel, which would make sense.

Don't forget that russia wants to keep hold of the ukraine within its sphere of influence.

If it annexes crimea, and then starts eyeing the russian majority areas in the south east of the country, the danger is that it loses the western side of the ukraine, including kiev.

Is difficult to say how it will play out.

There does seem to be some sense in saying that president putin will move slowly.

Somehow projected $70 billion this quarter.

Last year it was less than that for the entire year, capital flying out of russia.

How bad have things become when it comes to money moving out of the country?

Obviously, that is a big risk to the financial system and the economy.

If you look at the behavior of the russian stock market yesterday, it seemed to stabilize and bounce back a bit.

That doesn't seem to be an immediate stress.

My guess on the financial side is not to talk about u.s. treasuries.

They moved to a third-party custodian.

All sorts of financial flows going on in this situation.

Let's talk a little bit about china.

What is your latest reading on the economy?

Is it slowing so much that it will reach the 7.5% growth target that the leadership has set?

Certainly, the economy has had to slow.

What we are seeing in china is medium-term restructuring away from the model which is held up in large by imports and investment.

We are not going to see double-digit growth anymore.

What we have witnessed over the past few months is a slowing of the economy, beyond the deceleration of activity which the chinese authorities are comfortable with.

His time of year it is difficult to tell what the chinese economy is doing because there is a media holiday.

We will get the chinese gdp numbers for the first quarter towards the middle of next month.

I could actually prove

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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