Only Forceful Actions Will Stop Putin: Sutyagin

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March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Igor Sutyagin, research fellow at Royal United Services Institute, discusses why sanctions and markets won’t influence Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pursuit of control of Crimea on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

Situation as we now see it.

There is a massive market reaction this morning.

The ruble is crumbling.

The stock exchange in russia, capital flight is taking place.

What extent will that influence the way president putin thinks about the situation in front of him?

He is a tactician and he thinks in a very tactical sense.

He thinks a temporary reaction will be settled down once the world realizes he cannot do anything.

Russia will take control of crime year and putin believes that it will be ok for russia.

Your assumption is that is what he is going for.

He wants control of crimea.

He wants control of crimea for two or three reasons.

The first one is that he tries to replicate the situation in georgia.

He needs a spot of stability to have leverage.

Secondly, is a geopolitical need.

For geographical reasons.

If russia will lose this base, it will lose the possibility, the chance to influence the situation in the whole black sea region, which is unacceptable for russia.

It was the base for russian fleets for over 220 years.

How can the west leverage its position here?

What is the point of pain for resident putin?

There is one thing being done in brussels today, to change putin's course.

Is extremely difficult if possible at all to force him to change his course rapidly.

He will not react.

He is a sort of tank going forward.

He does not think of the next step before he finishes the first step.

He will continue his policy.

The west will not react and will swallow what has happened.

I would be very pessimistic about the prospects to change his policy right now.

Who does he listen to?

First of all, he listens to his team which rules russia.

Could they be targeted?

It might be targeted if -- putin will become a very serious liability for this team.

He might be forced to change the policy.

A likelihood of that happening?

If you were forming policy, that would be the point of maximum leverage, do you think?

It seems to me that might be the most sensitive and most painful thing for vladimir putin.

That will be the clear violation of his contract, a social contract with his small team of oligarchs and rulers of russia.

He does not believe it, because his contract is to defend their interests.

If their properties elsewhere could be affected, that is reason for them to think.

Let's talk a little bit about europe's exposure to russia and how much that will hamstring foreign policy.

We rely on one third of our gas supplies coming from russia.

Some of that can be substituted.

Ella reuss -- belarus can replace some of that.

First of all, as far as i can number, 51% of russians -- of the russian budget comes from oil and gas revenues.

No less than 20% of the russian budget comes from gas flow to europe.

The point is that vladimir putin's psychology is that of the person who grew up in the court gangs in leningrad.

He is used to fighting without rules.

Only after that he will think it over.

He is prepared to take much higher losses now.

In the longer term, he will probably suffer more than the west.

Once, it was angela merkel who said seven years ago, when putin tried to use the gas weapon, she said to not forget -- he said do not forget who sells her gas.

And she said to not forget who buys your gas.

It is a point she will probably be making most forcefully.

Another thing that is standing out is that here's is a man of significant ego.

If you was removed from the g8, how much of a blow that the to him?

It would be a great personal blow, because he values that a lot.

He values the publications by forbes to be more influential.

He values that a lot, but that is the sense of his personal ego.

This highly personalized russian foreign policy might play a role, but once again that will not play rapidly.

The point is that i do not see what extremely forceful actions might drop him right now.

He will not stop, especially

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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