How Main Street Views a Government Shutdown

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Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gary Langer, president at Langer Research Associates, examines how the general public views a government shutdown with historical data on previous shutdowns, which side would be blamed most if a shutdown happens and the potential harm to small business and the economy. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”

Lying to research and shows us what the polling comes to.

Thank you.

Take us back to late 1995, the last time we face a short- term shutdown.

How did americans feel?

There are two ways to think about this.

One is how people feel about the economy and the potential impact . the other is a political piece which is a somewhat different story.

We have the bloomberg comfort index and we can look what happened going into the last shutdown.

Before we do that -- take a look at this.

We had a peak in consumer sentiment in 1995. it went into a trough going into the shutdown and in that first year a long, you have a drop when the shutdown happens.

It recovers and then you get something of a drop again.

Then we are back where we were.

You can see a bit of a trough.

Would that have happened anyway?

We don't know.

Consumer confidence was of a much that her condition today great we are on an upswing.

We are on an upswing now.

But a much more limited one.

We are a lot weaker now and a lot more risky.

We hit about a five and half year high back in early august but we had a dreadful august.

If you are ben bernanke looking at that and say taper?

I don't know.

And we have a long, slow, crawl out of the recession but there's a lot of sensitivity.

How long is the shutdown going to last, who is a going to hurt?

Those are the critical questions.

What does it do to the economy?

Who are americans going to blame?

That is the political element.

They're going to blame everybody equally.

Mad at everyone.

You can't get any lower.

If you are a republican in congress, this is not at issue to injure argument on.

Obamacare is not a popular proposal.

It's not a proposal, it's the law.

It's probably the most significant social legislation of the last 50 years.

It has regina g -- it has received a majority support.

A significant chunk strongly oppose it very that is far more -- do they even know what it is?

Giving current understanding, they know enough to know they don't like it.

The question is do they not like it enough to support a shutdown of the federal government to prevent them from taking place?

On that, we see softer numbers.

The number of people who support shutting down the government to lock obamacare is about 27%. not enough to actually want to shut the government down over it.

That puts the republican party at some risk at getting ahead of public opinion on this issue three going too far with it, being seen as intransigent and losing support.

Is the strategy of playing a game of brinksmanship over the affordable care act ill-advised for the republican party?

Currently in our data, half of americans don't think barack obama is doing enough to compromise on the budget.

But two thirds think the wreck of the -- and the republicans in congress are not doing enough.

They are at greater risk.

Even with the antipathy toward obamacare, they put themselves in some peril.

Blame game aside, do shutdowns affect consumers and small businesses?

In 1995, not that much.

We pulled in 95 and 96, we asked if you are harmed or inconvenienced by those shutdowns.

88% of americans said no him and that's why did not impact consumer sentiment or political sentiment in the long-term.

The question now is how long do they happen now and what kind of damage do they do?

That will tell the tale economically and politically.

Good to see you.

Thank you so much for joining us.

Gary langer is the president of

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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