How Healthy Is the U.S. Economy?

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May 1 (Bloomberg) -- UBS’s Julian Emanuel and Drew Matus discuss the markets and U.S. economy on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)


That is square market share.

This is part of the morning must read -- we took a poll this morning at our meeting.

This is true, 11% of 18-29-year-olds expect to retire before age 55. these people are in for a surprise.

Within the optimism of ubs, why are we so reticent about equities?

Don't equities to better over the long haul?

They do and we look at it as healthy skepticism.

This is the wall of worry we are climbing.

If you look at the headlines right now, people are saying to sell in may and go away.

We don't think that's necessarily the case.

The data might beg to differ.

Over the past five years, you can take an average of the s&p 500 and it declined 1.8%. if you look at the long haul, that tends to be the case.

2014 is shaping up as a different kind of your.

January is normally very strong and we had a week january.

February 10 to be soft and we had a good february.

We think the elements are in place.

This is stranger than fiction.

It's the bizarro nature of it, is because we don't know where it's going?

I have never seen the consensus so strong for a strong second half of the year.

Everyone says we have been through this before but everything is going toward a better second half of the year.

Can we get to four percent real gdp?

I don't think so but i don't think you need to.

One of the things we forget and one thing that has helped us -- it is allowing baby boomers to actually choose to retire.

Baby boomers are saying we are going to stay in the labor market forever but all of a sudden, the equity market recover and the housing market recovered and may now have the money they thought they had and they are leaving.

They are making room for the 18-29 years old.

And making money.

Sectors that tend to do the best, health care consistently is up 3.2% on average for the past 25 years over the summer months.

We can debate whether or not -- but they rocketed last year.

Correct, do you still ride that?

We certainly do.

It's one of the sectors that we prefer.

If you look at both earnings momentum and revenue, you getting it and health care.

It's the affordable care act that is providing some of the tailwind.

Let's jump forward.

We mentioned to sell in may and go away -- don't we have an election coming up?

Is this going to get in the way of either of your world?

What does this election due to the economy?

I worry more about elections overseas.

European parliamentary elections is not on anyone's radar and i could be a problem.

Even though the polls show that it's a 50-50 call, no one seems to think that's an important issue.

We go to our london correspondent, olivia sterns.

Should they be george go to edinburgh next after new zealand?

That would be a good idea.

I can just see baby george out in the backyard.

Think of the conversation.

Scotland for the first time since 1647 -- you learned that from "game of thrones." if i got the date wrong, please tweet me.

Scotland could leave the u.k.? this is unlikely.

Everybody talks about it in the u.k. all the economic analyses suggest that scotland independent of britain could not survive.

One more serious question -- we have had equity markets for years in a row, how tired is this bull market.

? it is by no means a startled but it is getting out there either in length or person to of gains.

We don't think that's an issue.

This year is all about the transition away from the fed is being the driver of higher prices into confidence and corporate profitability and the growing economy.

Thank you both so much for being with us.

We say good morning in scotland.

You can call in and have a discussion with olivia sterns.

Please call in if you are listening.

Coming up, checking the apple growth where sales surged and growth since then has tapered off.

It turns out another big company

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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