BJP Seen Defeating India’s Ruling Congress

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April 7 (Bloomberg) –- Barclays Regional Economist, Asia Rahul Bajoria discusses India’s election with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

One, indeed, the biggest cities will really be added as these polls commence now for five long weeks.

And a lot of people have been pointing to a bjp victory while others are saying, well, as long as somebody wins a clear mandate, that should be the most important thing.

How likely is that to happen?

The opinion polls are suggesting that the bjp is clearly ahead right now.

In the past, we have seen that the opinion polls can be incorrect.

I think i agree with the view that, as long as we get a stable government for the next five years, we can expect things to improve both in terms of decision-making and implementation on the ground.

What about investment decision-making?

They have been flat as a percentage of gdp for almost two years.

Our sense is that even though the on-the-ground situation has improved, sectors like the power sector, business investors are a sickly holding that right now to see the election decision.

We should see a gradual revival in the investment climate this could be sped up or we could see a slowdown depending on the election results.

Overall, we do think investment numbers will start pointing up i the end of this year.

You have to get growth going.

There is an old saying from clinton hogg in the u of -- in the u.k. that, if democracy changed anything, they would demolish it.

I think it is a degree whether the business sentiment itself improves.

We have seen some green shoots of recovery.

Particularly if you look at our production, the pmi numbers.

To take it further and to see a revival in private consumption demand, revival in durable goods, for that, we need a strong clinical mandate and something to tell people things are going to be ok and you can basically start planning ahead for the future.

One thing that has been conspicuous is the absence of any real reform agenda being published by the bjp, real solid policy initiatives.

Does that worry you?

Yes and no.

Yes in the sense that we have -- i mean, this is something that is expected of a lyrical party to publish, a written document with a clear view around what is it they want to implement.

But in terms of actually getting the message out, i mean the high ministerial candidate from the bjp has been campaigning for a long time in which he has spelled out his vision.

He essentially looking to privatize investment, infrastructure investment.

He is looking to focus on urbanization as a source of road.

He has also spoken about boosting productivity in the manufacturing and the agricultural.

That is something, i mean, in my own experience, i haven't seen any political party spell out specifics before they actually have been given power.

It is only on the bureaucracy level that certain things emerge from what needs to be done in order to get growth going or get momentum from that particular area of the economy.

Very quickly here as well, the stock market has had a great run up.

Have they effectively priced in a modi victory or even a coalition victory having the majority?

We would think that the foreign investor community, there has been a lot of optimism that is being deflected to the large inflows.

What is missing is participation from domestic investors.

I think it will come if they see

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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