A Look at the U.S. Budget Deal Highlights

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Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Potomac Research Group's Greg Valliere discusses the U.S. budget with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers." (Source: Bloomberg)

Passing in the house where it appears to be anything but a certainty?

A pretty good chance.

It is not a slamdunk.

Let's say 55, 60%. most of the democrats will support it i think.

Why do they support it?

If we go back to the language that was being used during the government shutdown, this is a big change of heart, or it would appear to be.

Not all that much is getting done.

There's a lot of fatigue in this town.

Ennui, whatever word you want to use.

People are tiring of the brinksmanship and bickering.

They do not want to go there again.

They have obamacare which is a much better narrative for them to use politically.

I think the republicans are gun shy about again -- a big confrontation.

Should we call it a gift from god?

Is anyone, whether we are talking about the bickering in our budget or the affordable health care act, all of this has to do with the american people.

They are not winning in any of this.

I think the idea that there's not going to be another dysfunctional budget fight for a year and a half, this is a long deal.

Taxpayers and businesses and the markets can count on some predictability.

Olympus uncertainty that unnerves people over the last few months is over.

-- all of this uncertainty that unnerves people over the last few months is over.

Are we going to get a real grand bargain?

Not unless the markets freak out.

The markets are fat and happy.

They do not have a problem.

You could see interest rates sprite -- spike if interest rates went up.

The budget deficit is going to fall in the next two or three years.

I think by 2016 we will be close to a surplus.

I do not see a big crisis coming on.

I am assuming you believe the debt ceiling is going to be resolved in march.

If it is not, it is worse than a you bet.

It may go to april or may.

They may be able to hang in there until mid spring.

I have talked to some of them who do not want another confrontation to worry global markets about the fall prices.

That is something the republicans do not want to do.

What have they not done as they prepare to leave town?

How much time do we have?

Immigration reform, freddie and fannie, the tax reform.

It is a long list.

Unemployment benefits.

It will probably go back to that issue when we get into january and might extend them for a wild.

The last week or so, the last week of congress is ugly to watch.

They will let a lot of things to -- lapse into next year.

What you mean by ugly?

They say during the year that they will do for the big decisions until the end and then the end comes in they want to go home.

They say we will extend the farm bill until the end of january.

It is not a great way to run a railroad.

The big story here is that this brutal dysfunctional partisanship has decreased a bit.

For the markets, that is positive.

Is that to say that your constituents and clients that higher potomac research are going to be renewed before the end of the year and that everyone can breathe easy?

They will not be renewed.

There is not time for that.

The last week in congress is not pretty to watch.

They may be renewed retroactively in the winter.

My clients are going to worry about this deal eliminates a big source of uncertainty.

That means the fed has one less reason to wait on beginning tapering.

If we get a strong retail sales report tomorrow, i think chances of tapering will tip over 50%. is that to say that your clients want quantitative easing to continue indefinitely?


It is like free drugs.

It is a great stimulus.

Everybody is enjoying it.

Once the fed begins at, there will be concerned that it is the beginning of a long process where the fed gets less accommodative.

They're going to do it because the economy is getting better.

That is a good story.

Am i thank you for sharing your

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