2014 World GDP to Resemble Late 1990s: Dumas

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Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Lombard Street Research Chairman and Chief Economist Charles Dumas discusses the global economy on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)

All crash down?

There are risks.

There are always risks.

I suppose politics is the main risk.

You have got a kind of competitive day valuation potential in china and japan.

The germans have a permanent evaluation structure in the euro whereby other people's expectations keep them competitive.

China and japan are up against one another.

If that flares up in any military sense, then that would be a risk.

In terms of the problem, u.s. looks to grow by three percent to four percent this coming year.

The stock market is likely to carry on rising.

The euro looks weak, presumably not back into depression but week.

With debt problems and the deficit emerging markets are weak.

Said taper talk and all of that.

The measures they have already taken more than anything else are slowing them down.

The exporters depend on u.s. imports.

The dollar is bury cheap.

That is going to be -- is 2014 going to be the year of problem currencies?

The euro?

We are dollar bulls.

Probably against the euro too.

There is not much to go for in europe in terms of investment.

The markets are stretched.

There is a little money to be gained in bonds.

There is not much to make their.

They have a substantial surface which is likely to persist which has to go somewhere and the natural place to go is the dollar.

A lot of it is coming here and to britain.

That is certainly true.

The biggest risk geopolitically you say is what happens between china and japan in 2014. yeah.

The japanese are not at the current exchange rate going to make the inflation target they set on a permanent basis.

They may get their short-term just because of the inflation hump asking through the economy owing to the devaluation itself.

They are not going to stay at 2%. it will drift back down towards zero.

They want to get to 2% inflation and there has to be more devaluation.

It is already china which will be sitting there heavily overvalued that is to some extent the kind of victim if you like of this.

Charles, thank you so much for all of that.

Have a great holiday season.

Charlesd umas -- charles dum as.

What will 2014 bring?

Let's talk to our aviation reporter.

2013, quite a good year for the airline sector.

A continuation of trends we saw the golf carriers doing very well.

What are the key trends to come out of 2013 that will carry on in 2014? the trend of the golf carriers and their positioning is still going to be integral going into 2014. you saw qatar join oneworld.

You saw emirates making enormous orders in to buy.

You saw etihad considering a stake in alitalia.

The consolidation in the u.s. is

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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