{"id":93457,"date":"2024-10-07T14:28:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T18:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regulation\/harris-victory-may-mean-more-bank-regulation-trump-could-target-aca-green-tax-credits\/"},"modified":"2025-02-27T08:29:56","modified_gmt":"2025-02-27T13:29:56","slug":"harris-victory-may-mean-more-bank-regulation-trump-could-target-aca-green-tax-credits","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regulation\/harris-victory-may-mean-more-bank-regulation-trump-could-target-aca-green-tax-credits\/","title":{"rendered":"Harris victory may mean more bank regulation; Trump could target ACA, green tax credits"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00b5b19b40c'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Harris victory may mean more bank regulation; Trump could target ACA, green tax credits<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/regulation\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Regulation\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2667\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/381339951.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"US Capitol\" title=\"US Capitol Building\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/381339951.jpg 4000w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/381339951.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/381339951.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/381339951.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/381339951.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/381339951.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00b5b1a8092'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">October 7, 2024<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Intelligence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00b5b1ab58b'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>The 2024 US election will be a pivotal catalyst for markets and companies in terms of legislation, regulations, enforcement and other government actions. If Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris wins, banks may face fresh scrutiny over climate change, capital and executive pay, internet-service providers will probably be subject to federal regulation of broadband, and health insurers face a possible $25 billion drop in premium revenue. Antitrust pressure on dominant companies will likely persist, though potentially more targeted at the health care, grocery and housing sectors than big tech. If Republican former President Donald Trump prevails, Obamacare subsidies might be on the chopping block and carmakers\u2019 electric-vehicle demand may fall if tax credits are cut. Headline risk will linger, given neither party is expected to win a filibuster-proof majority in Congress. Whoever wins, US courts will likely remain business friendly.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00b5b1ad721'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Discover more with Bloomberg newsletters<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Subscribe now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_2501398052434950143\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00b5b1b41a5'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Industry overview<\/h2>\n<p>The winner of the election could bring meaningful change to revenue, costs, taxes, capital and overhead for nearly every sector in the US economy, yet some are more exposed to the outcome than others. Here are six to watch: investment banks, big tech, health care, manufacturers, electric vehicles and clean energy.<\/p>\n<p>Capital requirements for big US banks including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan may hinge on the election\u2019s outcome. If Harris wins, regulators may finalize the last remaining Basel III accord &#8212; boosting CET1 requirements by 7-10% in Bloomberg Intelligence\u2019s most likely scenario &#8212; and increase stress capital buffers. A victory by Trump will likely lead to a longer-term decoupling of capital rules, with subsequent declines in requirements feasible for the next few years.<\/p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Microsoft could benefit from a Harris election win, though this relies mainly on what happens with the antitrust leadership at the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission. If replaced, Harris&#8217;s appointees will determine how the investigations and legal challenges facing big tech platforms will be treated.<\/p>\n<p>As front-line targets of the Biden administration&#8217;s aggressive antitrust enforcement efforts, all five companies face major antitrust lawsuits, some seeking court-ordered breakups. Though most of this litigation will likely continue, there\u2019s a slight uptick in settlement possibilities for weaker cases (which we see as the ones against Apple and Amazon) should Harris win.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, whether a Trump presidency would bring some easing largely hinges on his appointees to antitrust leadership at the FTC and DOJ. The GOP is split over enforcement policy \u2013 some align with the interventionist mission of the Biden administration, while others are more likely to reverse course. Trump and running mate JD Vance have been vocal opponents of big tech platforms, though the basis for the animosity may not be antitrust-driven.<\/p>\n<p>Obamacare health-plan sponsors like Centene and UnitedHealth could see a significant revenue hit if enhanced subsidies that expire at the end of 2025 aren&#8217;t extended. The Congressional Budget Office projects ACA enrollment could drop by 4 million people in one year if that happens, a potential $25 billion hit to insurer revenue. A Harris win, or Democratic control of the House, could delay the financial hit for at least two years. Republicans are eager to see the enhanced subsidies expire, pointing to federal data that 30% of the money goes to people with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty level, or about $60,200.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"330\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/finreg3.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Election scenarios\" title=\"finreg3\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/finreg3.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/finreg3.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/finreg3.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/finreg3.jpg 1342w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>If Harris is elected, taxes on manufacturers such as Deere, Hormel and Keurig could jump, while they&#8217;ll likely fall in a Trump presidency. Republicans want to renew capital expensing, which incentivizes spending on new machinery. They&#8217;d also like to permit loss carrybacks. Democrats intend to repeal a repatriation incentive, the foreign-derived intangible income (FDII) deduction and raise domestic and international corporate tax rates.<\/p>\n<p>Deere&#8217;s revenue surged 26% in 2018, after capital expensing began, and growth has slowed as it\u2019s been phased out. Hormel&#8217;s effective tax rate (ETR) declined to 14% in 2018 from 34% in 2017; it&#8217;s 22% today. Similarly, Keurig&#8217;s ETR has shrunk to 21% from 34% in 2017. FDII is the largest US tax deduction for General Dynamics and Dover.<\/p>\n<p>Electric-vehicle (EV) makers, including Tesla and Rivian, face increased risk with IRA tax credits to promote the purchase of EVs likely on the line, along with emissions policies aimed at phasing in their use across the nation. A Harris win means federal tax credits for consumer purchases of EVs (up to $7,500 for new vehicles, $4,000 for used) will probably stand, while under Trump they could be scrapped or replaced with a &#8220;Buy American&#8221; program that could benefit traditional automakers like Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.<\/p>\n<p>First Solar, Meyer Burger, Enphase, Canadian Solar, Qcells (Hanwha) and other solar equipment suppliers could see beneficial tax provisions weakened if Trump wins in November and works with Congress to modify or repeal the Inflation Reduction Act. US manufacturing spending surged following the August 2022 passage of the IRA, which provides generous subsidies for domestically produced solar modules and other components used to supply clean energy. Should Harris win the presidency, we doubt such incentives would be at risk.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>A Harris victory would likely extend similar policies to President Joe Biden\u2019s first term, meaning banks, internet service providers and pharmaceutical companies could face greater scrutiny and tighter regulations than under Trump. If Trump wins, we expect him to sign a series of executive orders across several sectors, potentially helping banks including Citigroup, while hurting tech companies like Meta and Alphabet, drugmakers such as Bristol Myers and health insurers including Centene and UnitedHealth.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h6>Disclosure<br \/>\nThe data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. The BLOOMBERG TERMINAL service and Bloomberg data products (the \u201cServices\u201d) are owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. 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Nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates, or as investment advice or recommendations by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates of an investment strategy or whether or not to \u201cbuy\u201d, \u201csell\u201d or \u201chold\u201d an investment. Information available via the Services should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. The following are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries: BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG TERMINAL and BLOOMBERG.COM. Absence of any trademark or service mark from this list does not waive Bloomberg\u2019s intellectual property rights in that name, mark or logo. All rights reserved. \u00a9 2024 Bloomberg.<\/h6>\n<h6>Bloomberg Intelligence is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates. Bloomberg Intelligence likewise shall not constitute, nor be construed as, investment advice or investment recommendations, or as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. The Bloomberg Intelligence function, and the information provided by Bloomberg Intelligence, is impersonal and is not based on the consideration of any customer&#8217;s individual circumstances. You should determine on your own whether you agree with Bloomberg Intelligence. Bloomberg Intelligence Credit and Company research is offered only in certain jurisdictions. Bloomberg Intelligence should not be construed as tax or accounting advice or as a service designed to facilitate any Bloomberg Intelligence subscriber&#8217;s compliance with its tax, accounting, or other legal obligations. Employees involved in Bloomberg Intelligence may hold positions in the securities analyzed or discussed on Bloomberg Intelligence.<\/h6>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a00b5b1b9fc1]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #f4f4f9;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--f4f4f9 text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00b5b1b9fc1'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h3>Related Content<\/h3>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-4 bbg-column--halign-right\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<div\n  id=\"cta_7788125007752126634\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  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