{"id":72392,"date":"2024-05-31T11:56:25","date_gmt":"2024-05-31T15:56:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regional-analysis\/the-gulf-is-flexing-petrodollar-power-and-learning-its-limits\/"},"modified":"2024-07-19T17:41:08","modified_gmt":"2024-07-19T21:41:08","slug":"the-gulf-is-flexing-petrodollar-power-and-learning-its-limits","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regional-analysis\/the-gulf-is-flexing-petrodollar-power-and-learning-its-limits\/","title":{"rendered":"The Gulf is flexing petrodollar power and learning its limits"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a0ab0c1f3411]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0ab0c1f3411'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/regional-analysis\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Regional Analysis\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/sustainable-finance\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Sustainable Finance\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">The Gulf is flexing petrodollar power and learning its limits<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0ab0c204d49'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg News<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">May 31, 2024<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0ab0c206c99'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article was written by Ziad Daoud. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>To understand the scale of Gulf nations\u2019 wealth, just consider this: If the United Arab Emirates sold its stash of foreign holdings, it could make every one of its roughly 1 million citizens a millionaire. Qataris would enjoy the same windfall. Saudi Arabia, with its larger population, wouldn\u2019t hit a million dollars per citizen, but the share allotted to each one would still be close to the average annual income in the US\u2014a hefty sum.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, that leaves out the large share of those countries\u2019 populations who aren\u2019t citizens\u2014not to mention that these states have no intention of simply dividing up and distributing their hoards. That\u2019s not what the money is for: It\u2019s for securing the future. The Gulf is awash in oil revenue. The value of daily crude exports in 2022 and 2023 topped $1 billion, leaving enough after paying for imports to fuel massive savings. But the world is\u00a0transitioning away from oil and gas, and these nations need to diversify.<\/p>\n<p>So they\u2019re\u00a0building up portfolios\u00a0that have made them\u00a0major forces on the global investment scene, with holdings that include American tech companies, English football clubs, Egyptian real estate, African mines and Turkish bank deposits. Four of the world\u2019s top 10 sovereign wealth funds are from the region, those belonging to Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Gulf is close to becoming the only region with three separate wealth funds exceeding $1 trillion each. Asset managers, private equity partners and venture capitalists from New York, Silicon Valley and London pack the business-class cabins of Emirates and Etihad Airways A380s to\u00a0pitch their services and ideas.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground:rgba(0,0,0,0);\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:inherit;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Discover more with Bloomberg newsletters<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Subscribe now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_5036368745699227643\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"_blank\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0ab0c20b3f8'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Money isn\u2019t just an economic tool; it\u2019s also a political weapon. The Gulf nations are using their petrodollar wealth to wield influence on the world stage\u2014placing investments to further strategic goals. Turning hydrocarbons into geopolitical muscle isn\u2019t new: The oil embargo in 1973, when Arab states stopped selling oil to countries supporting Israel, leading to a fourfold increase in the price of crude, is only the most famous example.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s different now is that the Gulf\u2019s leaders are taking a riskier investment approach to generate higher financial returns. They\u2019re also looking to cultivate soft power, ensuring the world sees the Gulf in a favorable light.<\/p>\n<p>The Gulf nations\u2019 decisions ripple around the globe. Their investments can affect the cost of borrowing for the US, their key security partner. Their cash can provide an alternative to China\u2019s financing in an increasingly polarized world. And their aid and other support can help stabilize troubled economies and make or break International Monetary Fund bailouts.<\/p>\n<p>But the process also carries risks for the Gulf. Its countries\u2019 objectives can at times be contradictory\u2014engagements in Sudan or Yemen may make sense strategically, but there\u2019s a price to be paid in lives lost and international opprobrium. Gulf powers are often at odds with each other on foreign policy. And moving away from oil requires political change as well as savvy investment decisions.<\/p>\n<p>Like all investors, the Gulf states are pushing to maximize returns from their savings. The stakes are higher than simply putting ever-bigger numbers on the account ledger. Oil has created a social contract: economic prosperity for citizens in exchange for their loyalty to an absolute monarch. The hydrocarbon windfall has been funding the pact, but oil prices are volatile, and every electric vehicle that rolls off the assembly lines of\u00a0Tesla Inc.\u00a0and China\u2019s\u00a0BYD Co.\u00a0is a reminder that nothing lasts forever.<\/p>\n<p>Non-energy investments can generate earnings that offset some future oil losses. Saudi Arabia\u2019s\u00a0Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman\u00a0laid out\u00a0this strategy\u00a0in 2016. His aim was to \u201cmake investments the source of Saudi government revenue, not oil.\u201d Traditionally, Gulf nations parked a large share of their wealth in safe assets, such as cash, bank deposits and US debt. Now they\u2019re aiming to generate a higher yield. Qatar\u2019s wealth fund, for example, favors stocks, real estate and infrastructure investments. Similarly, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority allocates most of its nearly $1 trillion in assets to stocks, real estate, private equity and infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p>Metals are another target investment. As the world transitions to clean energy, metals such as copper\u2014used in power transmission and batteries\u2014would be in high demand. The Gulf nations have been investing in mines and metal-trading companies. The UAE has bought a copper mine in Zambia. Saudi Arabia wants to increase metal mining\u2019s role in its economy. Oman has plans for the world\u2019s largest green steel plant.<\/p>\n<p>Food security is another concern. The Gulf lacks arable land and water for irrigation, and it relies heavily on food imports. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine, both of which rocked global supply chains, have exposed how risky this is. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are now actively acquiring farmland across Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. Some of their sovereign wealth funds have dedicated units specifically focused on securing food supplies.<\/p>\n<p>In short, the Gulf nations are playing a multipronged game\u2014diversifying their investments while also securing their access to resources. But the payments they receive from oil and gas are too large to be replaced with dividends from sovereign wealth funds, even with their massive size, no matter the investment strategy. And as many pension fund and university endowment managers can tell you, there\u2019s no free lunch in investing. Bets on\u00a0SoftBank Group Corp.\u2019s Vision Fund and the collapsed Credit Suisse have already provided the Middle East\u2019s money men with\u00a0an expensive lesson\u00a0that higher risk\u00a0doesn\u2019t always bring more reward.<\/p>\n<p>Japan famously overpaid for US assets in the 1980s and it also unintentionally stoked anti-Japan sentiment in the process. That backlash is worth keeping in mind when considering the other goal of the Gulf powers\u2014boosting their image and influence abroad.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar1.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Assets of Gulf countries held overseas\" title=\"petrodollar1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar1.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar1.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar1.jpg 915w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Soft power relies on persuasion, not coercion. It leverages culture and values, not guns or threats. Saudi Arabia has long been a soft-power heavyweight in parts of the world. Its role as custodian of Islam\u2019s two holiest sites in Mecca and Medina gives it influence in the Muslim world. But times are changing. It\u2019s attempting a rebrand, aiming to swap social conservatism for a more open image. It\u2019s spending generously on tourism, entertainment and sports.<\/p>\n<p>Qatar proves you don\u2019t need a large population to be a soft-power player. Its Al Jazeera TV reaches far and wide, with huge influence in the Arab world. It\u2019s flexing muscles in sports, too, owning a Parisian football club and having hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup. In the UAE, Dubai aspires to be a dream destination, with its mix of economic prosperity and social\u2014if not political\u2014openness.<\/p>\n<p>The power of money isn\u2019t always so soft: Gulf states do plenty of hard economic statecraft, too. In the 1980s, they bankrolled Iraq\u2019s war with Iran. In the 1990s they doled out money and offered debt relief to secure support from Egypt, Morocco and Pakistan against Iraq\u2019s invasion of Kuwait.<\/p>\n<p>This year the UAE is\u00a0investing $35 billion in real estate projects in Egypt. The size of the deal\u2014equivalent to 7% of the UAE\u2019s gross domestic product\u2014goes beyond simple commercial logic, hinting at a political motive. The most obvious one is maintaining stability in a region riddled with unrest, with civil wars in neighboring Libya and Sudan and a conflict raging next door in Gaza. The UAE investments helped Egypt secure an IMF deal and prevent an economic collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Turkey, once an adversary of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has more recently become a friend. The two Gulf countries stepped in with investments and deposits that helped stabilize the Turkish lira before President\u00a0Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s crucial elections in 2023\u2014transfers that helped Erdo\u011fan emerge victorious.<\/p>\n<p>The UAE is actively investing in ports across the Horn of Africa. In her book\u00a0<em>The Economic Statecraft of the Gulf Arab States<\/em>, Columbia University political economist\u00a0Karen Young\u00a0argues that these investments aim to counter Islamist politics and Iranian influence in the region. The latter is felt both in the Horn of Africa and across the Red Sea via the Houthi rebels in Yemen.<\/p>\n<p>Petrodollars are also playing a role in war-torn regions like Libya, Sudan and Yemen, and they may one day in Gaza. The financial support they provide can significantly influence political outcomes in these territories. For African nations caught in the growing US-China rivalry, Gulf investments offer a welcome alternative. Many countries are wary of the historical baggage associated with Western aid and the potential debt burdens caused by Chinese loans.<\/p>\n<p>Gulf money matters even for the world\u2019s largest economy. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the inflow of Gulf savings into the debt market may have reduced US borrowing costs by 0.25 percentage point. Over the period from 2005 to 2023, that saved US taxpayers some $700 billion.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"435\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar2.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Top recipients of aid from Gulf countries\" title=\"petrodollar2\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar2.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar2.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/petrodollar2.jpg 919w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Petrodollar diplomacy isn\u2019t without risks. For one thing, it\u2019s expensive. From 2013 through 2022 the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait provided a combined $34 billion to Egypt in the form of cash grants, oil shipments and central bank deposits, according to data compiled by Hasan Alhasan and Camille Lons from the\u00a0International Institute for Strategic Studies. In just a two-month period in 2024, the UAE is due to send more than that amount. Qatar spent about $300 billion to upgrade its infrastructure ahead of hosting the World Cup. Dubai went through a real estate crisis in 2009 amid the construction frenzy that delivered the world\u2019s tallest tower.<\/p>\n<p>The World Cup also brought international attention to conditions faced by many foreign workers building up Doha. In the US, Saudi Arabia\u2019s funding of a professional golf tour triggered a Senate inquiry into the kingdom\u2019s use of its wealth to extend its influence. And Democrats in the House of Representatives in March pushed for hearings on the business dealings and potential conflicts of interest of\u00a0Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of former President\u00a0Donald Trump. Kushner, who served as a White House adviser, now runs a fund that\u00a0received a $2 billion investment\u00a0from Saudi Arabia\u2019s wealth fund after Trump left office. Kushner has said he won\u2019t return to government if Trump wins his bid to regain the presidency.<\/p>\n<p>Tunisia recently\u00a0blocked a Qatari fund\u00a0from opening a branch there. The decision meant sacrificing a quick $150 million injection into the economy and potentially more funding. Opponents saw the Qatari office as a threat to national sovereignty and a hindrance to self-reliance. They also questioned Doha\u2019s alleged links to Islamist politicians. The episode shows that soft power may be hard to buy\u2014and that reputations once established may be difficult to alter, no matter how much money a state throws at improving its image.<\/p>\n<p>For now, research from Young at Columbia shows that the Gulf\u2019s economic diplomacy hasn\u2019t been sensitive to movement in oil prices. But a sustained drop in the energy market could suddenly deprive many countries addicted to petrodollar support of essential funds. Put simply, the Gulf\u2019s investment and political choices will not only shape their own post-oil future but also the political landscape in developing countries and the global financial order.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a0ab0c2135a9]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0ab0c2135a9'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Recommended for you<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><script>\n    window.feed = window.feed || {};\n    window.feed['6a0ab0c2157c1'] = 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